Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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600 FXUS65 KFGZ 040912 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 212 AM MST Sat May 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy afternoon winds. Winds will continue to increase, peaking on Sunday, and remaining gusty through much of the week. Isolated showers near the Arizona-Utah state line on Sunday with most areas remaining dry. Temperatures will cool slightly on Sunday but warm back up through midweek. Another trough will keep temperatures cool for the second half of the week but conditions will remain dry. && .DISCUSSION...Dry conditions will continue for today as we enjoy the warmth ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Southwest winds will be gusty again this afternoon with gusts between 25-35 mph. A deep upper level low will track towards the Pacific northwest and dig southward into the Great Basin late tonight into Sunday. As the low tracks into the Great Basin on Sunday, the pressure gradient will really start to tighten up. This will result in strong, gusty winds across the forecast area. Most areas will likely see gusts between 40-50 mph, but some localized gusts up to 65 mph will be possible, especially in areas downwind of the higher terrain. Some of the guidance has trended slightly downward with the strength of the winds but confidence is still high that we will see at least advisory level winds occur. However, with uncertainty as to how much coverage and the location of the highest winds, prefer to leave the High Wind Watch as is for now. As the low starts to cross to our north, we should also see an increase in moisture. While the majority of the moisture from this system will remain off to our north, there should be enough moisture moving into our region to squeeze out some showers across the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday and over the higher elevations of the Chuska Mountains. The majority of ensemble members are consistent with showing measurable precipitation over the Kaibab with a decent number of them showing measurable over the Chuskas. Most areas will remain dry as the low moves through and areas that do see some precipitation will likely see less than 0.10". Temperatures take a dip on Sunday, falling around 5-10 degrees below normal. With the strong winds and dry conditions, it will raise the potential for near critical fire weather concerns. The most likely areas will be across northeastern Arizona where RH values will drop below 15% during Sunday afternoon but with increasing moisture on Sunday it may be more marginal. The limiting factor may be the fuels but definitely something else to keep our eyes on. No changes to the current Fire Weather Watch at this time. As the low passes to the north and east, we should see better conditions return as zonal flow sets up through the week. Winds will remain breezy on Monday with cooler temperatures still hanging around the region. Temperatures will moderate remaining near or just below normal through the week as another trough may dip down from the north. Conditions look to remain dry at this time for the rest of the week but expect winds to continue to be gusty each day. && .AVIATION...Saturday 04/06Z through Sunday 05/06Z...Expect VFR conditions with scattered mid-level clouds. Light and variable wind overnight through most of Saturday morning. South-southwest winds gradually increasing after 17Z, reaching sustained speeds 15-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts during the afternoon and evening. OUTLOOK...Sunday 05/06Z through Tuesday 07/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions will persist but with increasing clouds late Saturday night into Sunday, along with a 10-30% chance of light rain or snow showers along/north of a KGCN-KRQE line Sunday afternoon and evening. Southwest winds 15-25 kts Saturday night, strengthening to 25-35 kts gusting to 40-55 kts on Sunday. Periods of MVFR visibility in blowing dust are likely from KINW-KSJN-KRQE northward for Sunday afternoon. Winds gradually decreasing Sunday night, with west winds 15-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts on Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Dry and mild conditions are expected today with increasing southwest winds. Anticipate gusts of 20 to 35 mph for this afternoon. Then, a Pacific storm will result in strong southwest winds on Sunday across northern Arizona. Expect sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with peak gusts of 40 to 55 mph by late morning. Locations prone to downsloping winds will likely see gusts of up to 65 mph during this time. Minimum humidity for Sunday afternoon is forecast to be in the 10 to 20% range across northeast Arizona as the remainder of northern Arizona will be in the 25 to 30% range. Periods of critical fire weather conditions are likely across northeast Arizona with a Fire Weather Watch remaining in effect for locations near St. Johns in Apache County. Monday through Wednesday...West-southwest winds remain elevated each afternoon through Wednesday with widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Average temperatures will continue through the period with afternoon humidity of 10 to 15% and overnight recoveries of 25 to 45%. No precipitation is expected through next week. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ004>017-039-040. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ114. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff