000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181053
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
350 AM MST TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...VERY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MAKES
LANDFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...AND A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF SLIGHTLY AND SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.

AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND...IT WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO OUR
EAST TO REGAIN POSITION OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MOISTURE TO SEEP BACK INTO THE EASTERN ZONES. BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL RE-DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST FOR CONTINUED BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 18Z...THEN SOUTHWEST 10-15KT GUSTS TO 25KT
THROUGH 02Z WEDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AFTERNOON
HAINES INDICES OF 5 AND 6 ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BOTH
DAYS. LOOK FOR SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FOR AREAS BELOW
6000 FEET BOTH AFTERNOONS. ON WEDNESDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS
ARE DUE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES IN THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF