000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231646
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
946 AM MST THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY TODAY...AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS OVER THE COMING DAYS REMAINS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR
UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. WIND AND FIRE WX HEADLINE PRODUCTS
CONTINUE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE HAS SET UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FROM TEXAS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A VERY DRY AND WINDY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA...WITH TODAY LIKELY TO BE EVEN WINDIER THAN WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
AROUND THE MAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
FOR MOST AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER SPEEDS SOUTH OF THE RIM. THIS WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME
BLOWING DUST FROM THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST
ARIZONA. A RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MOST AREAS...SEE PHXRFWFGZ AND PHXNPWFGZ FOR DETAILS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR
WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE A BIT...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE...VERY
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST BY MEMORIAL DAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT. THE USUAL
TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT IN THE MODEL DATA...BUT
MOST SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE SOMETIME
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. WE COOLED FORECAST HIGHS FOR THESE DAYS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES...AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WINDS BCMG SW15-30G40KTS. BLDU PSBL ACROSS
NERN AZ THRU 02Z. WINDS DECREASING BELOW 15KTS AFT 03-04Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING WARM...DRY...AND BREEZY TO
WINDY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA.

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM 10 AM MST TO 8 PM MST. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TONIGHT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES AND WINDS DECREASE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE BUT
WITH SLOWER WINDS SPEEDS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH
BUT NOT EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ104>117-
137>140.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004>017-
038>040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD
AVIATION.......DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF