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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231031
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE HAS SET UP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FROM TEXAS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A VERY
DRY AND WINDY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH TODAY
LIKELY TO BE EVEN WINDIER THAN WEDNESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AROUND THE MAIN LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH FOR MOST AREAS ALONG/NORTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS SOUTH OF THE RIM.
THIS WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME BLOWING DUST FROM THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHEAST ARIZONA. A RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND
ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS...SEE PHXRFWFGZ AND PHXNPWFGZ
FOR DETAILS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR WIND
SPEEDS TO DECREASE A BIT...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE...VERY NEAR
AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATES ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST BY MEMORIAL DAY WHICH MAY CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT. THE USUAL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
ARE APPARENT IN THE MODEL DATA...BUT MOST SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE STATE SOMETIME TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. WE COOLED
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THESE DAYS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...AND ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 16Z-18Z SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING 15-30 KTS
GUSTS TO 40 KTS. VSBY COULD BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN BLOWING DUST IN
APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES 18Z-02Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 15KTS
03-04Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS ARIZONA.

THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM 10 AM MST TO 8 PM MST. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TONIGHT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES AND WINDS DECREASE.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH
SLOWER WINDS SPEEDS. THE LATEST FORECAST DATA INDICATE THAT WIND
SPEEDS WILL APPROACH BUT NOT EXCEED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST TODAY FOR
AZZ104>117-137>140.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST TODAY FOR
AZZ004>017-038>040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF