000
FXUS65 KFGZ 161542
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA FROM THE WEST.
MOST AREAS WILL BE SUNNY AND BREEZY TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WHERE A FEW STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. BY
MONDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL
AREAS...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AIR IS STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS DUE TO A VERY
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THAT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOISTURE IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WILL LIKELY HANG ON FOR ONE MORE
DAY TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH WINDS AND CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS PEAKING WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL THEN WEAKEN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND MAY ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWARD BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT LOW END POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO
COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETWEEN
19Z-02Z MON...ISOLATED -TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER.
AFTERNOON WINDS S-SW 10-20KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR TODAY...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST REDUCING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
ARIZONA NEW MEXICO LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING A BREEZY AND VERY DRY PATTERN TO
ARIZONA. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
AFTERNOON HAINES VALUES WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM/PETERSON
AVIATION.......MCS/DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF