000
FXUS65 KFGZ 200429
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM MONDAY ONWARD WITH WINDY PERIODS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS SCATTERED CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN APACHE COUNTY ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER REGION.
THESE CLOUDS AND A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
DEGREES STARTING TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE WINDS IN NORTHERN AZ WILL BE INCREASING AS DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
CLOSED LOW SETTLING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A STALLED COLD
FRONT RUNNING NE-SW FROM SW WYOMING THROUGH LAS VEGAS. CROSS
SECTIONS HERE SHOW DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING. STRONGER WINDS COUPLED
WITH A DRY AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE LAST TWO
RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN A STRONG PROBLEM CHILD SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT. THURSDAYS WIND
FORECAST HERE BLENDS THE TWO MODELS...AND THIS FORECAST HAS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA BEING MET IN AREAS WEST OF A LINE
FROM PAGE TO FLAGSTAFF TO SHOW LOW. SHOULD THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE...SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WOULD
NEED TO BE INCREASED AROUND 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WEAKENING WITH TIME STARTING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LOCAL
WIND IMPACTS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND UPON THE TRACK OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER LONG WAVE PATTERN. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH LIGHTER WINDS. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA THESE TWO DAYS LOOK TO BE THE WINDIEST WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS LOOK TO BE A FEW MILES
PER HOUR UNDER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODERATE TO HIGH
HAINES FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN/DL
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF