Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
AXUS75 KFGZ 200033
DGTFGZ
AZZ004>007-010-011-039-040-282300-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
530 PM MST THU FEB 19 2015

...EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARIZONA...

...EXTREME DROUGHT DEVELOPS IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA...

SYNOPSIS...

IN THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED FEBRUARY 19, SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT (D2-D3) IS DEPICTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALVES OF COCONINO,
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY EXTREME
DROUGHT INCLUDE WINDOW ROCK, TSAILE, LUKACHUKAI, TEEC NOS POS, MOST
OF GRAND CANYON NATIONAL PARK AND THE TUSAYAN AREA. FARTHER SOUTH,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM WITH MODERATE
DROUGHT NOW REPORTED. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
IN THIS AREA SINCE LAST SUMMER, SNOWPACK OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IS MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA REPORTING NO SNOWPACK AT ALL. IF THIS CONTINUES, IT WILL HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ON STREAMFLOW FROM THE LACK OF SPRING SNOW MELT,
INCLUDING THE RECHARGE OF AQUIFERS AND FILLING OF RESERVOIRS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

A FEW COMMUNITIES AND RURAL AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING WATER SHORTAGES
IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. STREAMFLOW VALUES ARE FALLING BELOW NORMAL
WHICH COULD AFFECT SOME LOCAL USERS. WINTER RECREATION OPPORTUNITIES
HAVE ALSO BEEN LIMITED IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.
ANOTHER IMPACT THAT COULD DEVELOP IS INCREASED WILDFIRE DANGER LATER
IN THE SPRING IF THESE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

BOTH LONG AND SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS EXIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ARE
MOSTLY LONG TERM AS RECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SINCE SUMMER 2014
HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO NORMAL. HOWEVER, DUE TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS
WINTER, SNOWPACK ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (TYPICALLY 7000 FT OR
ABOVE) IS NEARLY ABSENT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR
(DEC 1 - FEB 18) ARE NEAR RECORD HIGHEST, THIS TENDS TO DRY OUT
SOILS AND VEGETATION WHICH CAN WORSEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

LATEST WATER YEAR 2014-15 PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

                OCT 1 2014 - FEB 18 2015   DEPARTURE FROM   PERCENT
                 OBSERVED PRECIPITATION        NORMAL        NORMAL

WINDOW ROCK AZ            3.55"                -0.61"          85%
CHINLE AZ                 4.09"                +0.33"         108%
GRAND CANYON AIRPORT AZ   1.87"                -4.74"          28%
GRAND CANYON NORTH RIM    3.47"                -7.69"          31%
FLAGSTAFF AZ              6.92"                -1.85"          79%
PRESCOTT AZ               4.06"                -2.27"          64%

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR
MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE ODDS ARE ALSO TILTED
SLIGHTLY IN FAVOR OF A CONTINUATION OF WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
THERE IS STILL A 50-60% CHANCE THAT A WEAK EL NINO WILL STILL DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. HOWEVER, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
A DEVELOPING WEAK EL NINO WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON NORTHERN
ARIZONA WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WINTER SEASON.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

DUE TO LOW OR ABSENT SNOWPACK THIS LATE IN THE SEASON, SPRING
SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS LIKELY TO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL. THIS WOULD AFFECT
STREAMFLOW AND THE RECHARGE OF AQUIFERS AND RESERVOIRS IN THE
REGION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENTS FROM THIS OFFICE ARE NORMALLY ISSUED
ON THE THIRD THURSDAY OF EACH MONTH IN WHICH EXTREME OR EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN A PORTION OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE NEXT
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR AROUND MARCH 19, 2015.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
NWS FORECAST OFFICE FLAGSTAFF...WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV /REQUIRES WWW./
ARIZONA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DROUGHT PROGRAM...
AZWATER.GOV/AZDWR/STATEWIDEPLANNING/DROUGHT
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...WRCC.DRI.EDU
USGS WATER RESOURCES OF THE UNITED STATES...WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS COMPILED FROM A MULTITUDE
OF FEDERAL...STATE...AND LOCAL AGENCIES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - FLAGSTAFF
POB 16057
BELLEMONT, AZ 86015
928-556-9161
W-FGZ.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

WFO FLAGSTAFF - JJ




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