Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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AXUS75 KFGZ 210654
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AZZ008-014-017-037-302300-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1150 PM MST FRI JUN 20 2014

...DROUGHT WORSENS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...

SYNOPSIS...

DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN ACROSS ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION
OVER THE WINTER AND SPRING HAS BEEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL...AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE TYPICALLY DRY AND WARM LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER
HAS CAUSED MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TO BECOME EVEN DRIER. NEARLY ALL
OF COCONINO...YAVAPAI...NAVAJO...APACHE AND GILA COUNTIES ARE IN
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT. IN TWO AREAS...EXTREME DROUGHT (D3 ON
THE US DROUGHT MONITOR) HAS EMERGED. THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTY...AND MOST OF
WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. SOME COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY EXTREME DROUGHT
INCLUDE WHITERIVER...GREER...ALPINE...PRESCOTT...SELIGMAN.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER CAUSED BY DRY AND STRESSED VEGETATION IS CURRENTLY
CLASSIFIED AS VERY HIGH TO EXTREME...REPRESENTING A SIGNIFICANT
RISK TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE LOWER THAN
NORMAL...WITH A FEW COMMUNITIES AND RURAL AREAS EXPERIENCING WATER
SHORTAGES.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE DRYNESS DEVELOPED OVER THE FALL AND
WINTER AND THEN PERSISTED THROUGH SPRING...FOLLOWING A RELATIVELY
WET MONSOON SEASON IN 2013.

UPDATED PRECIPITATION VALUES FOR THE WATER YEAR...

                OCT 1 2013 - JUN 20 2014   DEPARTURE FROM   PERCENT
                 OBSERVED PRECIPITATION        NORMAL       NORMAL
CASTLE HOT SPRINGS AZ     4.35"                -5.73"         43%
FLAGSTAFF AZ              7.07"                -6.53"         52%
MCNARY AZ                 6.37"                -9.18"         41%
PRESCOTT AZ               5.64"                -4.39"         56%
SELIGMAN AZ               2.79"                -4.48"         38%
SHOW LOW AZ               4.74"                -4.38"         52%

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR JULY
THROUGH SEPTEMBER CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO CLEAR PREFERENCE TOWARD WARMER
OR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF EACH
CATEGORY.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM IMPROVEMENTS IN STREAMFLOW...RANGE LAND CONDITIONS AND
STOCK TANK LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ONCE THE
MONSOON SEASON RAINFALL BEGINS...TYPICALLY IN EARLY JULY.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE REQUIRED
TO REPLENISH LOCAL WATER RESOURCES THAT RESPOND ON LONGER TIME
SCALES (LARGE RESERVOIRS, AQUIFERS, ETC.).

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENTS FROM THIS OFFICE ARE NORMALLY ISSUED
ON THE THIRD THURSDAY OF EACH MONTH IN WHICH EXTREME OR EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN A PORTION OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE NEXT
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON JULY 17, 2014.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
NWS FORECAST OFFICE FLAGSTAFF...WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV /REQUIRES WWW./
ARIZONA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DROUGHT PROGRAM...
AZWATER.GOV/AZDWR/STATEWIDEPLANNING/DROUGHT
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...WRCC.DRI.EDU
USGS WATER RESOURCES OF THE UNITED STATES...WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS COMPILED FROM A MULTITUDE
OF FEDERAL...STATE...AND LOCAL AGENCIES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - FLAGSTAFF
POB 16057
BELLEMONT, AZ 86015
928-556-9161
W-FGZ.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

WFO FLAGSTAFF - JJ





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