Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
AXUS75 KFGZ 212309
DGTFGZ
AZZ011-039-040-312300-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
400 PM MST MON JUL 21 2014

...DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...

SYNOPSIS...

DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WINTER AND SPRING WAS MUCH BELOW NORMAL...AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE
TYPICALLY DRY AND WARM LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER CAUSED MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA TO BECOME EVEN DRIER. NEARLY ALL OF COCONINO...
YAVAPAI...NAVAJO...APACHE AND GILA COUNTIES ARE IN MODERATE TO
SEVERE DROUGHT. IN TWO AREAS...EXTREME DROUGHT (D3 ON THE US DROUGHT
MONITOR) PERSISTS. THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTY...AND MOST OF WESTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY. SOME COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY EXTREME DROUGHT INCLUDE
WHITERIVER...GREER...ALPINE...PRESCOTT...SELIGMAN.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

A MAJOR IMPACT FROM THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER WAS VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER. THIS HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST MONTH DUE TO
THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER HUMIDITY AND MONSOON RAINFALL. FIRE DANGER HAS
DROPPED INTO THE MODERATE TO HIGH CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS. RESERVOIR
LEVELS ARE LOWER THAN NORMAL...WITH A FEW COMMUNITIES AND RURAL
AREAS EXPERIENCING WATER SHORTAGES.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE DRYNESS DEVELOPED OVER THE FALL AND
WINTER AND THEN PERSISTED THROUGH SPRING...FOLLOWING A RELATIVELY
WET MONSOON SEASON IN 2013. MONSOON RAINS SO FAR THIS SEASON HAVE
BEEN MIXED...WITH SOME AREAS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND OTHER AREAS DRIER
THAN NORMAL. MONSOON RAIN SO FAR THIS SUMMER HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT TO THE LONG TERM DROUGHT
SITUATION.

UPDATED PRECIPITATION VALUES FOR THE WATER YEAR...

                OCT 1 2013 - JUL 20 2014   DEPARTURE FROM   PERCENT
                 OBSERVED PRECIPITATION        NORMAL       NORMAL

CASTLE HOT SPRINGS AZ     4.65"                -6.25"         43%
FLAGSTAFF AZ              9.95"                -5.31"         65%
MCNARY AZ                 9.48"                -8.40"         53%
PRESCOTT AZ               6.31"                -5.44"         54%
SHOW LOW AZ               6.80"                -3.89"         64%

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR
AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO CLEAR PREFERENCE TOWARD WARMER OR
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF EACH
CATEGORY. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE COMING FALL AND WINTER...EL NINO
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THE
EVENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM CPC INDICATE
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
FALL AND WINTER.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM IMPROVEMENTS IN STREAMFLOW...RANGE LAND CONDITIONS AND
STOCK TANK LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MONSOON SEASON WHICH CONTINUES INTO SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE REQUIRED TO REPLENISH LOCAL WATER
RESOURCES THAT RESPOND ON LONGER TIME SCALES (LARGE RESERVOIRS,
AQUIFERS, ETC.).

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENTS FROM THIS OFFICE ARE NORMALLY ISSUED
ON THE THIRD THURSDAY OF EACH MONTH IN WHICH EXTREME OR EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN A PORTION OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE NEXT
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON AUGUST 21, 2014.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
NWS FORECAST OFFICE FLAGSTAFF...WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV /REQUIRES WWW./
ARIZONA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DROUGHT PROGRAM...
AZWATER.GOV/AZDWR/STATEWIDEPLANNING/DROUGHT
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...WRCC.DRI.EDU
USGS WATER RESOURCES OF THE UNITED STATES...WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS COMPILED FROM A MULTITUDE
OF FEDERAL...STATE...AND LOCAL AGENCIES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - FLAGSTAFF
POB 16057
BELLEMONT, AZ 86015
928-556-9161
W-FGZ.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

WFO FLAGSTAFF - JJ







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