Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
AXUS75 KFGZ 030014
DGTFGZ
AZZ010-011-039-040-312300-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
515 PM MST THU OCT 2 2014

...HEAVY MONSOON RAINS IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA...

...SEVERE DROUGHT PERSISTS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA...

SYNOPSIS...

HEAVY MONSOON RAINS CONTINUED INTO SEPTEMBER...AND BROUGHT
ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. AT THE BEGINNING OF JULY...ALL OF
YAVAPAI COUNTY WAS AFFECTED BY SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT...WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF EXTREME DROUGHT IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. HEAVY
MONSOON RAINS OVER THE PAST 3 MONTHS HAVE BROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN
DROUGHT STATUS FOR THESE AREAS. IN THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED
OCTOBER 2, DROUGHT CATEGORIES IN YAVAPAI COUNTY HAVE IMPROVED...WITH
AREAS FROM PRESCOTT SOUTHEASTWARD CLASSIFIED AS ABNORMALLY DRY...AND
AREAS WEST OF PRESCOTT IN MODERATE DROUGHT. THESE DESCRIPTIONS
REFER TO LONG TERM DROUGHT...AS SHORT TERM CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VERY
WET. SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES...WHERE MONSOON RAIN TOTALS FELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST PLACES.

SOME COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY EXTREME DROUGHT IN THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR INCLUDE WINDOW ROCK...TSAILE...LUKACHUKAI...AND TEEC NOS POS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

A MAJOR IMPACT FROM THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER WAS VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER. THIS HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST
THREE MONTHS DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER HUMIDITY AND MONSOON
RAINFALL. RESERVOIR LEVELS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA
REMAIN LOWER THAN NORMAL...WITH A FEW COMMUNITIES AND RURAL AREAS
EXPERIENCING WATER SHORTAGES. RANGE LAND CONDITIONS HAVE SHOWN
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST 90 DAYS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

WHILE RAINFALL SINCE JULY 1 IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA...SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS
CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE DEFICITS
ARE DUE TO THE VERY DRY FALL...WINTER AND SPRING OF 2013-14.

FINAL PRECIPITATION VALUES FOR THE WATER YEAR 2013-14

                OCT 1 2013 - SEPT 30 2014   DEPARTURE FROM  PERCENT
                 OBSERVED PRECIPITATION        NORMAL        NORMAL

WINDOW ROCK AZ            7.44"                -4.86"          60%
CHINLE AZ                 7.62"                -1.96"          80%
FLAGSTAFF AZ             19.80"                -2.06"          91%
PRESCOTT AZ              23.87"                +5.92"         133%

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR
OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE COMING WINTER...
THERE IS A 60-65% CHANCE THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP.
HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THE EVENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH A WEAK
EL NINO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH WEAK EL NINO IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM CPC INDICATE ONLY SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FALL AND WINTER.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN STREAMFLOW...RANGE
LAND CONDITIONS AND STOCK TANK LEVELS THIS MONSOON SEASON WHICH
ENDED SEPTEMBER 30TH. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
WILL BE REQUIRED TO REPLENISH LOCAL WATER RESOURCES THAT RESPOND
ON LONGER TIME SCALES (LARGE RESERVOIRS, AQUIFERS, ETC.).

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENTS FROM THIS OFFICE ARE NORMALLY ISSUED
ON THE THIRD THURSDAY OF EACH MONTH IN WHICH EXTREME OR EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN A PORTION OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE NEXT
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR AROUND OCTOBER 16, 2014.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
NWS FORECAST OFFICE FLAGSTAFF...WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV /REQUIRES WWW./
ARIZONA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DROUGHT PROGRAM...
AZWATER.GOV/AZDWR/STATEWIDEPLANNING/DROUGHT
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...WRCC.DRI.EDU
USGS WATER RESOURCES OF THE UNITED STATES...WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS COMPILED FROM A MULTITUDE
OF FEDERAL...STATE...AND LOCAL AGENCIES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - FLAGSTAFF
POB 16057
BELLEMONT, AZ 86015
928-556-9161
W-FGZ.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

WFO FLAGSTAFF - JJ




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