Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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AXUS75 KFGZ 300445
DGTFGZ
AZZ010-011-039-040-312300-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 PM MST FRI AUG 29 2014

...HEAVY MONSOON RAINS IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA...

SYNOPSIS...

HEAVY MONSOON RAINS HAVE BROUGHT IMPROVEMENT TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE
AFFECTED MUCH OF YAVAPAI COUNTY AND OTHER AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON
RIM TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. IN MID JULY...MUCH OF YAVAPAI COUNTY WAS
CLASSIFIED AS EXTREME DROUGHT (D3 ON THE US DROUGHT MONITOR). SINCE
THAT TIME...HEAVY RAINS HAVE BROUGHT AN IMPROVEMENT TO DROUGHT
STATUS...WITH MOST OF YAVAPAI COUNTY NOW IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1 ON
THE US DROUGHT MONITOR). THE WHITE MOUNTAINS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED FROM
EXTREME DROUGHT TO MODERATE DROUGHT. NORTHEAST ARIZONA HAS MISSED OUT
ON THIS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH NORTHEAST APACHE COUNTY RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TO EXTREME DROUGHT.  SOME COMMUNITIES AFFECTED BY EXTREME
DROUGHT IN THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INCLUDE WINDOW ROCK...
TSAILE...LUKACHUKAI...AND TEEC NOS POS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

A MAJOR IMPACT FROM THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER WAS VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER. THIS HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST
TWO MONTHS DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER HUMIDITY AND MONSOON
RAINFALL. RESERVOIR LEVELS REMAIN LOWER THAN NORMAL...WITH A FEW
COMMUNITIES AND RURAL AREAS EXPERIENCING WATER SHORTAGES. RANGE
LAND CONDITIONS HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

WHILE RAINFALL SINCE JULY 1 IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA...SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS
CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ARIZONA. THE DEFICITS
ARE DUE TO THE VERY DRY FALL...WINTER AND SPRING OF 2013-14. NOTE
THAT PRESCOTT (AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY) WAS ABLE
TO ELIMINATE THE WATER YEAR DEFICIT DUE TO THE HEAVY MONSOON RAINS.

UPDATED PRECIPITATION VALUES FOR THE WATER YEAR...

                OCT 1 2013 - AUG 29 2014   DEPARTURE FROM   PERCENT
                 OBSERVED PRECIPITATION        NORMAL       NORMAL

WINDOW ROCK AZ            5.58"                -5.17"         52%
CHINLE AZ                 6.54"                -1.99"         77%
FLAGSTAFF AZ             16.70"                -2.60"         87%
MCNARY AZ                16.65"                -6.81"         71%
PRESCOTT AZ              18.82"                +2.98"        119%

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR
SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ODDS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO CLEAR PREFERENCE TOWARD
WARMER OR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF
EACH CATEGORY. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE COMING LATE FALL AND WINTER...EL
NINO CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THE
EVENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH A WEAK EL NINO THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM CPC INDICATE ONLY SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FALL AND
WINTER DUE THE THE POSSIBILITY OF EL NINO DEVELOPMENT.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM IMPROVEMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN STREAMFLOW...RANGE
LAND CONDITIONS AND STOCK TANK LEVELS THIS MONSOON SEASON WHICH
CONTINUES INTO SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE REQUIRED TO REPLENISH LOCAL WATER RESOURCES
THAT RESPOND ON LONGER TIME SCALES (LARGE RESERVOIRS, AQUIFERS,
ETC.).

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENTS FROM THIS OFFICE ARE NORMALLY ISSUED
ON THE THIRD THURSDAY OF EACH MONTH IN WHICH EXTREME OR EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN A PORTION OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE NEXT
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR AROUND SEPTEMBER 18, 2014.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
NWS FORECAST OFFICE FLAGSTAFF...WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV /REQUIRES WWW./
ARIZONA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DROUGHT PROGRAM...
AZWATER.GOV/AZDWR/STATEWIDEPLANNING/DROUGHT
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...WRCC.DRI.EDU
USGS WATER RESOURCES OF THE UNITED STATES...WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS COMPILED FROM A MULTITUDE
OF FEDERAL...STATE...AND LOCAL AGENCIES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - FLAGSTAFF
POB 16057
BELLEMONT, AZ 86015
928-556-9161
W-FGZ.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

WFO FLAGSTAFF - JJ





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