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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 210536
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1236 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.AVIATION...
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STRATUS CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
HILL COUNTRY AND SHOULD REACH WACO BY 07Z AND THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08Z TO 09Z. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR AROUND
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY IN WACO. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING TUESDAY AND BECOME VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A 45 TO 50 KNOT JET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND
SOME OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR WILL BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
SUSTAINED ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

PROBLEMS WITH THUNDERSTORM TIMING...
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN THE LATE
MORNING...WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT WHICH WOULD
INDICATE AFTERNOON ARRIVAL. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE MORNING
TIMING BECAUSE THERE ARE TOO MANY MODELS INDICATING IT TO
IGNORE...AND WILL ADJUST TO LATER IF THE MODELS COME TO BETTER
AGREEMENT. 84-- End Changed Discussion --

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN THE CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES... NEARLY ALL STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
AS OF 930 PM. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
THEREFORE...WE WILL LET THE WATCH EXPIRE FOR ALL COUNTIES AT 10 PM.
WE STILL EXPECT A SQUALL LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SUPERCELL WITH A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
A TORNADO ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

FOR THIS UPDATE WILL LOWER FIRST PERIOD POPS IN MOST AREAS AND
ADJUST HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY AND WIND GRIDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION
ON TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
BY THE WEEKEND. THE RETURN OF NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS
THE RED RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME ACTIVE FROM SOUTH OF
WICHITA FALLS THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE CAP IS STILL
INTACT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...WE EXPECT
IT TO WEAKEN OUT WEST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 5 PM.
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE NORTHEAST BUT LINE PROPAGATION WILL PUSH
THEM FARTHER IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND MAYBE TO A SHERMAN TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY MIDNIGHT. AS STATED EARLIER TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH LARGE CAPE THUS LARGE HAIL (UP TO
BASEBALL) AND DAMAGING WINDS (65MPH+) ARE POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED.
HELICITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST NEAR THE RED RIVER 5 TO 8PM...SO
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE OKLAHOMA ACTIVITY MIGHT
SLIDE ACROSS THE RED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DECIDED TO KEEP HIGH POPS
GOING FOR NOW.

TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. SEVERAL HIGH-RES
MODELS INDICATE A SQUALL LINE FORMING ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE COULD BE SEVERAL LEFT OVER MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT WOULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL MIGHT
EXCEED 1 1/2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...BUT DO NOT FEEL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN DUE TO GUIDANCE VALUES OF AROUND 3 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED OR PENETRATES FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE DRIER AIR WOULD
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS WED-FRI OVER THE NORTHERN HALF THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. 75

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 88 69 90 69 / 40 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 67 89 70 89 69 / 60 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 63 85 64 84 63 / 40 10 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 62 88 65 87 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 64 88 65 86 66 / 30 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 69 89 72 89 71 / 40 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 67 88 69 87 67 / 60 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 70 88 70 88 70 / 70 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 68 88 69 87 69 / 60 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 61 89 66 91 67 / 20 10 10 10 20-- End Changed Discussion --

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.-- End Changed Discussion --

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