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000
FXUS64 KFWD 150000
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
700 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening Through Monday Afternoon/

Another warm and breezy day is coming to an end across North and
Central Texas this evening. Lingering clouds from this morning
continue to persist across our eastern counties as our ridge axis
begins its journey off into the Southeastern CONUS. In its wake, a
developing system will start to move across the Desert Southwest,
reinforcing southerly flow across the region. Low level moisture
will allow stratus to overtake North and Central Texas once again
through the overnight hours into early tomorrow morning, with
cloud cover lingering through much of the day. This will keep
overnight lows quite mild, generally ranging in the mid 60s.

Highs through tomorrow will range in the upper 70s and low 80s,
with a few locations out west reaching into the mid 80s. Cloud
cover should keep temperatures relatively moderated compared to
previous days, with potential for virga/sprinkles through the
early afternoon hours. Our attention will then turn to the late
afternoon hours where a few thunderstorms could develop off to our
northwest in portions of Oklahoma. Most of this convection will
remain elevated in nature since we will be quite displaced from
the dry line, though stronger storms will be capable of hail and
damaging winds. Overall coverage will remain quite sparse however,
thanks to a strengthening cap that will be in place. For more
details regarding overnight storm chances through Monday, please
see the long term portion of the discussion below.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 145 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/
Update:
The forecast discussion below remains on track. The greatest
potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms will fall
between 8PM-2AM Monday night, predominantly along/north of I-20
and west of I-35. Isolated hail and damaging winds will be the
primary hazards. It is still very likely that storms weaken as
they approach the I-35 corridor Monday night due to strong
capping. There is a low chance for storms to redevelop and or
reintensify across our far eastern counties late Tuesday morning
into early Tuesday afternoon before exiting to the east. It is far
more likely that this activity is east of our forecast area before
re-strengthening. Most locations will see less than 0.15" of rain
with this event with many remaining dry, especially over portions
of Central Texas. See the discussion below for more details
regarding the remainder of the long-term forecast period.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Onward/

By Monday evening, a robust dryline/Pacific front structure in
West Texas should be initiating deep convection mainly upstream
of the forecast area with aid from upper-level ascent. This
initial supercellular activity is expected to undergo some upscale
growth while progressing eastward into North Texas later in the
evening. However, upon doing so, it should encounter rather strong
capping as the lift required to erode such strong inhibition will
largely remain displaced north of the forecast area in the
Central Plains. As a result, some weakening seems very likely the
farther east storms progress, with convection largely expected to
fall below severe limits around or perhaps before the time it has
advanced into the I-35 corridor late Monday night. Before then,
there will at least be some potential for isolated strong or
severe convection in western North Texas, largely west of I-35 and
north of I-20 late Monday evening. The eventual convective mode
(which is still uncertain) will dictate the possible hazards,
with isolated discrete cells maintaining a hail threat while
growth into linear segment(s) would increase a potential wind
threat. This system is not expected to be a heavy rain or flood
producer, with most areas likely seeing less than 0.25" of rain.

The Pacific front may slow or stall across portions of
East/Central Texas on Tuesday which could allow for some
redevelopment and/or reintensification of activity across far
eastern portions of the CWA. All activity should finally move off
to the east in the afternoon with much drier air arriving within
westerly near-surface flow. This will lead to a warmer and rain-
free midweek period, with highs climbing into the 80s and even
lower 90s by Wednesday.

There is still an above-average amount of uncertainty during the
late week period and heading into next weekend, but guidance has
come into slightly better alignment on the arrival of a cold front
during the Thursday/Friday time frame. Some convective chances
will probably exist immediately along this boundary as it
arrives, although the degree of pre-frontal moisture return and
amount of upper-level ascent are still uncertain, and those
factors will end up dictating rain coverage with the initial
frontal passage. The greater rain chances will probably lag a
couple of days behind the front`s arrival, as secondary
disturbances result in a robust overrunning regime above the cool
post-frontal airmass. While this setup will largely mitigate the
risk for severe convection aside from perhaps some hail, it could
bring another bout of heavy rainfall to some areas with an
attendant flood risk. There are still large discrepancies as to
where the frontal boundary may eventually stall and where a
heavier rain axis could materialize, and these details likely
won`t be known for at least a few more days.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR/IFR Likely Through Tomorrow Afternoon.

Another round of stratus will develop late tonight through early
tomorrow morning, reaching the Waco TAF site around 07-08z and the
D10 terminals a couple of hours later. Increasing low level
moisture will likely allow these low clouds to hang around through
much of the day tomorrow, with ceilings rising to low VFR through
the afternoon. Breezy southerly winds will continue through
tomorrow as well, gusting up to around 25 knots. Warm air aloft
should help prevent any convection from impacting our TAF sites,
though there is a low chance (~20%) that storms graze across the
northwestern portions of the D10 airspace. Storm chances will
gradually increase through the overnight hours on Monday, but this
remains just outside of the current TAF period.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  81  68  86  67 /   0  10  50   5   0
Waco                67  80  67  86  69 /   0   5  30  10   0
Paris               65  78  65  82  67 /   0  10  40  40   5
Denton              65  80  66  85  62 /   0  10  60   5   0
McKinney            66  79  67  85  67 /   0  10  50  10   0
Dallas              68  81  68  87  68 /   0  10  40  10   0
Terrell             65  80  67  83  68 /   0   5  40  20   0
Corsicana           67  81  68  84  70 /   0   5  30  20   0
Temple              66  80  67  85  68 /   0   5  20  10   0
Mineral Wells       66  82  66  88  59 /   0  20  60   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$