Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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000
FXUS64 KFWD 231944
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
244 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024
...New Long Term...
.SHORT TERM... -- Changed Discussion --
/Issued 1217 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/
/This Afternoon through Sunday Night/
High pressure is in place across the Southern Plains this
afternoon but changes are on the way as the surface high will
gradually drift eastward and southerly winds return. High cloud
cover is spreading across West Texas at this hour thanks to a
170 kt upper jet which has tapped into some Pacific moisture.
Skies may actually become overcast with thick cirrus by early
evening. Otherwise, the rest of the afternoon will be nice with
temperatures in the 60s.
A broad upper trough over the western CONUS will send a couple of
shortwaves through the Plains over the next 48 hours. The first
will eject out of the base of the trough early Sunday. Ahead of
this, strong surface pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies will
result in a rapidly deepening surface low over southeast Colorado.
This will result in a quickly tightening pressure gradient
throughout the Plains with southerly winds becoming gusty late
tonight. Breezy conditions are expected through the day Sunday and
a Wind Advisory will likely be needed across part of the region.
As the first wave of ascent spreads into the Southern Plains
late in the morning, a dryline will sharpen and move east. It`s
unlikely that we`ll see any surface based convection in our area
through early Sunday afternoon, but strong low level warm
advection will likely lead to some scattered showers mainly north
of I-20 and across our northwest counties. By evening though, as
stronger forcing for ascent arrives and the Pacific front/dryline
spreads east, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across our far western counties and increase in coverage. These
should move east through the nighttime hours with most areas again
picking up some rainfall.
While wind fields are strong with this system and shear profiles
are impressive, we again lack more robust surface based
instability which will limit the overall severe threat in our
area. GOES derived PW imagery shows modest atmospheric moisture
content across the western Gulf with the best moisture confined
well down into the Bay of Campeche. Despite a strong return flow,
it`s unlikely that we`ll see low level moisture content of
sufficient quality to warrant a more significant severe threat.
That being said, similar to the storms Thursday night, we can`t
rule out a few strong storms with a hail/wind threat.
All of this activity will move into East Texas late Sunday night
into early Monday.
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.LONG TERM... -- Changed Discussion --
/NEW/
/Monday Morning Onward/
A line/broken line of showers and storms along a Pacific
front/dryline will have moved east of I-35 by daybreak Monday as a
lagging secondary shortwave swings across the Southern Plains.
Environmental instability remains lackluster in our eastern and
southeastern counties with regards to a true severe threat, but
abundant wind shear will allow for the potential for some strong
storms embedded within the line as it transits into East Texas over
the morning hours. The main threats with any more robust storm will
be small hail and gusty winds. There may be some lingering activity
behind the line over the early afternoon across our eastern
counties, but should end completely by late afternoon.
The true cold front will move through the region a little later in
the day as the aforementioned shortwave continues to the northeast.
This front will remain dry due to a lack of meaningful moisture
ahead of the boundary, but will bring cooler temperatures and
northerly winds to the region. Expect cool temperatures to span
the midweek period, with morning lows in the 30s/40s and afternoon
highs in the 50s/60s. Meanwhile, the larger longwave trough will
be ushered eastward as upper level ridging moves onshore the
western CONUS. As the apex of the trough passes over the Central
Plains on Wednesday, we`ll have another shot of showers and
storms.
Ridging will continue to move in behind the departing trough late
this upcoming week. Additionally, southerly winds at the surface
and low levels will return on Thursday. All in all, these
conditions will promote a warming trend across the region through
the end of the week. Expect highs in the 70s to around 80 by
Friday for a much more spring-like start to next weekend.
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.AVIATION... -- Changed Discussion --
/Issued 1217 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR prevails across the region at this hour but extensive high
clouds will overspread the region through this evening. As surface
high pressure moves east, we`ll see winds return to a southerly
direction by this evening. South winds will really increase
overnight and Sunday with gusts to 35+ kt Sunday afternoon.
Widespread MVFR cigs are expected to develop and overspread much
of the region Sunday morning. While we could see a few showers
through the day Sunday, greater TS chances will arrive later
Sunday night.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 70 58 73 42 / 0 20 80 20 5
Waco 57 70 58 72 44 / 0 5 80 30 5
Paris 48 66 55 66 39 / 0 30 90 60 5
Denton 54 68 54 72 38 / 0 20 80 10 5
McKinney 54 68 56 71 40 / 0 20 90 30 5
Dallas 56 70 59 73 43 / 0 20 90 30 5
Terrell 54 69 57 70 41 / 0 20 90 50 5
Corsicana 57 73 59 72 46 / 0 10 80 60 5
Temple 56 72 57 74 43 / 0 5 80 30 5
Mineral Wells 55 71 53 73 38 / 0 20 70 5 5-- End Changed Discussion --
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.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
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