358
FXUS64 KFWD 281805
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
105 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday/

The shortwave responsible for last night`s storms has exited to
the northeast, but a trailing disturbance is in the process of
generating one last round of convection as it moves east across
the region. Showers and storms should continue to increase in
coverage along and immediately east of the I-35 corridor through
the afternoon. Activity will work its way slowly east through the
afternoon and evening, creating mainly a threat for heavy rain and
flooding. The slow eastward progression of the developing storms will
allow for a southwest-northeast training of showers and
thunderstorms, which will enhance the threat for flash flooding
wherever the training convection occurs. The Flood Watch will
hence continue through 7 PM for areas along and east of I-35.

There is also a threat for severe storms, though morning
convection and the resulting cloud cover may mitigate the overall
severe potential. The highest severe threat will be confined to
the eastern-most counties where the best destabilization will
occur later this afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be
possible in any storm which attains severe thresholds.

Showers and storms will exit it the east (along with the
shortwave) overnight, leaving clearing skies and light winds in
its wake. Lingering moisture, light winds and mostly clear skies
will result in patchy fog formation across a good portion of the
forecast area. If skies clear earlier than forecast, dense fog may
become a concern, but at this time will keep the visibility
forecasts at or above one mile and monitor satellite and METAR
trends tonight. Monday should be a warm but overall quiet day,
with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 210 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/
Update:
An active weather pattern will continue through much of the
upcoming workweek after a brief lull on Monday. Additional
opportunities for thunderstorms are forecast from Tuesday through
Friday, although the potential for organized severe weather on any
particular day is still uncertain at this time. Sufficient
shear/instability parameter space for at least an isolated strong
or severe storm will exist on a daily basis as we remain in an
open warm sector though Friday before the arrival of a cold front.
Aside from nominal adjustments to PoPs, minimal changes were
needed from the previous long term forecast.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Onward/

A lull in the active weather will occur on Monday as the
multitude of upper level systems responsible for this weekend`s
thunderstorms shift to the east, and a weak ridge develops
overhead. Storm chances will return on Tuesday, however, as a
shortwave rounds the northern flank of the ridge. This will help
ignite thunderstorms along the dryline, which will be positioned
across the Big Country by Tuesday afternoon. These storms should
remain confined to the western half of the region, keeping the
severe weather potential largely west of the I-35 corridor. A
secondary batch of convection may also occur across the southeast
zones where an active seabreeze may infiltrate Tuesday afternoon.
The southeast storms will likely remain sub-severe, though a few
may produce gusty winds and heavy rain.

By Wednesday, a stronger shortwave will be dropping southeast
through the Rockies, weakening the ridge and generating another
round of dryline convection across the Big Country mid to late
afternoon. A warm and unstable environment along with 35+ knots
of effective shear will support more severe thunderstorm potential
as convection spreads east through the region Wednesday evening.
Storms will dissipate Wednesday night as instability wanes and a
capping inversion strengthens at the 850-700mb level.

A cold front will then approach on Thursday as the shortwave
trough traverses the Plains, providing another focus for showers
and storms along with the dryline Thursday afternoon and evening.
Widespread convection will be the result Thursday afternoon
through Thursday night, with activity pushing south of the region
along with the front on Friday.

A short reprieve in rain chances will occur Friday into Friday
evening before a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet
generates another round of precipitation Friday night into next
Saturday. All of the forecast area should be in the cool sector
following the frontal passage, keeping any thunderstorms elevated
in nature and resulting from isentropic ascent. This should limit
the severe potential, but a strong storm or two would be capable
of producing hail. After a seasonably cool and damp (next)
weekend, a strengthening ridge aloft should lead to a warm-up and
a rain-free start to the following week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Thunderstorms developing across Central Texas will spread north,
affecting parts of the DFW Metroplex early to mid afternoon. Will
keep VCTS at all TAF locations through 22Z. KACT will likely need
a TEMPO for TS for a few hours based on radar trends. Convection
will exit to the east later this afternoon and this evening.
Light winds and clearing skies will lead to fog or LIFR cig
formation overnight/Monday morning, and have opted for a TEMPO
LIFR conditions at all airports from 11Z-15Z Monday. Conditions
will improve after 15Z, followed by VFR and overall quiet aviation
weather for the rest of the forecast period.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  66  86  65  85 /  80  10   0   0   5
Waco                77  65  86  64  83 / 100  20   0   5  10
Paris               73  63  82  60  83 / 100  60   5   0  10
Denton              77  62  85  62  84 /  70   5   0   0   5
McKinney            74  62  84  62  83 /  90  20   5   0  10
Dallas              77  66  86  64  85 /  90  10   0   0  10
Terrell             73  62  84  62  84 / 100  40   0   0  10
Corsicana           74  65  86  64  85 /  90  50   0   0  20
Temple              77  65  86  64  84 / 100  20   0   5  20
Mineral Wells       79  60  86  62  86 /  20   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-095-104>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-159>162-174-175.

&&

$$