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682
FXUS64 KFWD 120801
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
301 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/Issued 114 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/
/Through Monday/

Widespread thunderstorms will impact the area today with threats
for heavy rain/flooding as well the potential for marginally
severe hail. A threat for additional severe weather is expected
east of I-35 on Monday.

A lead shortwave disturbance brought areas of showers and
thunderstorms to North and Central Texas yesterday evening, some
of which still persist across North Texas and the Texoma region
early this morning. However, a more potent shortwave exiting the
Central High Plains will bring a round of much more widespread
showers and thunderstorms to the entire forecast area beginning
around and after daybreak. This will be due to strong isentropic
ascent and robust northward moisture flux interacting with
steepening mid-level lapse rates. Around or after 6 AM, a rapid
blossoming of convection should occur from the Texas Hill Country
northeastward, with activity overspreading nearly the entire CWA
by mid morning. This convection will be elevated, limiting the
severe weather hazards to hail. However, flooding will also be of
concern with some portions of the area likely to see rainfall
totals of 2-3" through the daytime. A Flood Watch remains in
effect roughly along and south of I-20 where the flooding threat
will be highest.

This main round of rainfall is likely to taper off to the east
this evening, with a relative lull in precipitation occurring
overnight into early Monday morning. However, this system`s
trailing cold front will be moving through the area during this
time window, and this boundary should be capable of igniting new
convection as it encounters exceptional instability east of I-35
after sunrise Monday morning. Some strong/severe thunderstorm
activity along the front seems likely as it eventually progresses
into East Texas by mid afternoon. Threats for large hail and
damaging gusts will exist, the primary threat being determined by
the eventual convective mode which remains uncertain. A tornado
cannot be ruled out either, although the amount of low-level
instability recovery that occurs ahead of the front remains
uncertain, and this would dictate whether any tornado threat may
end up materializing. Most activity should be exiting the area to
the east by Monday evening along the cold front, leading to a
pleasant and dry overnight period.

-Stalley
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&&

.LONG TERM... 
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/NEW/
/Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Quiet weather will prevail beneath a shortwave ridge on Tuesday,
with afternoon temperatures peaking in the 80s under sunny skies.
Active weather will return on Wednesday as a vigorous shortwave
trough swings into the region. Convection should develop to our
west by Wednesday afternoon just east of a dryline. This activity
will eventually move into North and Central Texas sometime
Wednesday evening through the overnight hours. Instability may be
sufficient to support a few severe storms Wednesday evening, but
precise details are still rather uncertain at this time. A cold
front will bring additional storm chances throughout the day
Thursday, but the potential for severe weather will likely remain
low during this time period. Heavy rain and flooding will be the
main concern with this mid-week event, as waterlogged areas
continue to receive an overabundance of rainfall. Continue to
monitor the forecast over the next several days for any
changes/updates.

Late this week and next weekend look to be relatively quiet, with
temperatures potentially returning to the 90s for portions of the
area Saturday and Sunday. Low rain chances have been advertised
over the weekend, but this will largely depend on the evolution of
our upper level pattern late this week.

Barnes
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&&

.AVIATION... 
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/Issued 114 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024/
/06z TAFs/

Isolated thunderstorms are moving across D10 as of 06z, but will
clear the area in an hour or two with mostly rain-free weather
the rest of the early morning period. A large swath of showers
and thunderstorms will begin developing off to the southwest
during a 10-12z time window, and this activity will overspread the
entire region for the following several hours and persist into
the afternoon. Several hours of TS impacts are likely at all
airports. In addition, the arrival of rich low-level moisture
later this morning will result in prevailing IFR cigs, while
precipitation brings visibility reductions into the 2-5SM range.
The main round of precip is expected to move off to the east late
this afternoon or evening, but widespread low stratus and perhaps
some fog will fill in behind, with IFR prevailing overnight into
Monday morning.

-Stalley
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  67  85  64  84 / 100  60  50   5   0
Waco                75  69  85  63  83 / 100  60  50   5   0
Paris               73  64  83  62  81 / 100  90  80  10   0
Denton              72  64  83  60  82 / 100  60  50   5   0
McKinney            72  66  83  62  82 / 100  80  60   5   0
Dallas              73  67  86  64  84 / 100  70  60   5   0
Terrell             72  66  84  62  82 / 100  80  60   5   0
Corsicana           75  69  86  64  84 / 100  80  70   5   0
Temple              77  69  85  62  85 /  90  50  50   5   0
Mineral Wells       73  64  83  59  84 / 100  40  40   5   0
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday afternoon
for TXZ119>122-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
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&&

$$