Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
AXUS74 KFWD 200520
DGTFWD
TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-200000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

...DROUGHT RELIEF HINGES ON ADEQUATE SPRING RAINFALL...

FOR ADDITIONAL CONTENT...VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DROUGHT

--------------------------------------------------------------------

SYNOPSIS...

ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
ARE STILL NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR EL NINO...THE ATMOSPHERE REFUSES TO
BEHAVE AS IF AN EL NINO EVENT WERE ONGOING. PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THAT
THIS WINTER WILL FAIL TO MEET THE MINIMUM CRITERIA FOR AN EL NINO
EVENT. THE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION CERTAINLY BEAR
MORE RESEMBLANCE TO AN ENSO-NEUTRAL WINTER...WHICH 2014-2015 IS
LIKELY TO BE.

WITH LITTLE TO SUGGEST THAT THE DYING BREATHS OF THESE EL NINO
CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS TEXAS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WINTER AND INTO EARLY SPRING...DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST DURING MARCH AND APRIL. HOWEVER...THE U.S.
SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK SUGGESTS SOME IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR IN
NORTH TEXAS IF NORMAL RAINFALL OCCURS DURING MAY...CLIMATOLOGICALLY
THE WETTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR. WHILE NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL WOULD
CERTAINLY HELP AGRICULTURE IN THE REGION...THE EXTENSIVE HYDROLOGIC
DROUGHT IS UNLIKELY TO END BEFORE THE SUMMER ARRIVES.

EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) STRETCHES FROM THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX WESTWARD TO THE POSSUM KINGDOM AREA. THE HYDROLOGIC
DROUGHT REMAINS AMONG THE WORST ON RECORD FOR THE UPPER BRAZOS
BASIN. OVER 30 FEET BELOW CONSERVATION...HUBBARD CREEK RESERVOIR IS
ONLY 13 PERCENT FULL. NEARBY BRECKENRIDGE RECEIVED ONLY HALF OF ITS
NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING 2014...THE DRIEST OF 7 CONSECUTIVE YEARS
WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ALSO IN THE BRAZOS BASIN IS LAKE
PALO PINTO...WHICH IS AT ONLY 8 PERCENT OF ITS CONSERVATION VOLUME.

THE SPRING RAINY SEASON WILL NEED TO BE FRUITFUL TO AVOID ANOTHER
SUMMER WITH SERIOUS HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

JANUARY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXCEEDED NORMAL VALUES ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT LONG TERM DEFICITS PERSIST.
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED ONLY 70 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION SINCE LATE 2010. DEFICITS SINCE OCTOBER 2010 ARE IN
EXCESS OF 50 INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THERE ARE PROSPECTS FOR PERIODIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS THE REMAINDER
OF THE WINTER...BUT ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE SPRING SEASON ARE PRIMARILY TO OUR WEST. UNFORTUNATELY
FOR OUR DROUGHT-STRICKEN REGION...THE BEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL THIS SUMMER WILL BE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THANKFULLY...OUTLOOKS FOR THE WARM SEASON DO NOT FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

LAKE LEVELS...

EVAPORATION AND WATER USAGE ARE AT A MINIMUM DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS...BUT RECENT RAIN EVENTS HAVE PROVIDED LITTLE RUNOFF FOR AREA
RESERVOIRS...EMPHASIZING HOW MUCH MORE RAINFALL IS NEEDED. AMONG THE
LAKES THAT ARE STRUGGLING THE MOST...SOME HAVE SET RECORD LOW LEVELS
IN RECENT MONTHS.

                        NEW              RECORD LOW          YEAR
                     RECORD LOW            BEFORE           DAM WAS
                    SET THIS YEAR      CURRENT DROUGHT     COMPLETED

LAKE GRANBURY      681.48 / JUN 22    685.28 / AUG 1978      1969
LAKE NOCONA        813.20 / DEC 31    816.95 / OCT 2000      1960
LAKE RAY HUBBARD   424.89 / DEC 14    429.72 / OCT 2000      1969

--------------------------------------------------------------------

WATER RESTRICTIONS...

THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF MARCH...THE NORTH TEXAS MUNICIPAL WATER
DISTRICT (NTMWD) WILL REMAIN IN STAGE 3 WATER RESTRICTIONS...WHICH
LIMITS LANDSCAPE WATERING TO ONCE EVERY 2 WEEKS. SPRINKLERS AND
OTHER IRRIGATION SYSTEMS ARE PROHIBITED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM. THE
NTMWD SERVES 1.6 MILLION CUSTOMERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CITY OF
DALLAS.

IN APRIL 2014...THE FORT WORTH CITY COUNCIL MADE PERMANENT ITS
TWICE-PER-WEEK LIMIT ON LANDSCAPE WATERING. ONLY HAND WATERING IS
ALLOWED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM. ARLINGTON...ALSO WITHIN THE TARRANT
REGIONAL WATER DISTRICT (TRWD) SERVICE AREA...HAS SIMILAR
RESTRICTIONS BUT IS NOT READY TO MAKE THEM PERMANENT. THE TRWD IS
CONSIDERING STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT LANDSCAPE
WATERING TO ONCE A WEEK. DALLAS HAS MADE PERMANENT ITS TWICE-PER-
WEEK LIMIT...BUT THE RESTRICTION ON DAYTIME WATERING DOES NOT BEGIN
UNTIL APRIL 1. SINCE WATER RESTRICTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT
THE METROPLEX...RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED WITH THE CURRENT
GUIDELINES FROM THEIR MUNICIPALITY OR WATER UTILITY PROVIDER.

VOLUNTARY CONSERVATION CONTINUES FOR BOTH WACO AND TEMPLE/KILLEEN.
HOWEVER...WATER RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOME COMMUNITIES
WITHIN MCLENNAN AND BELL COUNTIES.

THE BRAZOS RIVER AUTHORITY IS ASKING CUSTOMERS WITHIN THE UPPER
BRAZOS BASIN...AS WELL AS AREAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS WHITNEY...TO
REDUCE USAGE BY 10 PERCENT. THE BRA LAKES WITHIN THE UPPER BRAZOS
BASIN (POSSUM KINGDOM...GRANBURY...AND WHITNEY) ARE ALL IN A STAGE 2
DROUGHT WARNING. PROCTOR LAKE...WHICH HAS FALLEN BELOW 30 PERCENT
CAPACITY...IS IN STAGE 4 PRO-RATA CURTAILMENT.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED DURING MARCH.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

&&

--------------------------------------------------------------------

RELATED WEB SITES...

NWS FORT WORTH DROUGHT PAGE - WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DROUGHT

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM - DROUGHT.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES - WATER.WEATHER.GOV

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR - DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER - DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

--------------------------------------------------------------------

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATES CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION AMONG
NUMEROUS AGENCIES...ACADEMIA...AND OTHER LOCAL INTERESTS. THE
EXPERTISE OF ITS MEMBERS HAS BEEN INVALUABLE IN DEVELOPING DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS.

THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (MAINTAINED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER) HAS ALLOWED VARIOUS IMPACTS TO BE COMPILED WITHIN
ONE CLEARINGHOUSE. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE AGRICULTURAL ISSUES...
HYDROLOGIC DEFICITS...FIRE DANGER...AND OTHER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES.

THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE CONTINUALLY MONITORS VEGETATION
CONDITIONS AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE STATE AGENCY ALSO MAINTAINS A
CURRENT LIST OF COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS.

OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE SUMMARIZED FROM A
VARIETY OF PRODUCTS CREATED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC).
CPC IS A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) ENTITY WITHIN THE NATIONAL
CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION (NCEP).

HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION IS COMPILED FROM NUMEROUS SOURCES...
INCLUDING THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE)...THE TEXAS WATER
DEVELOPMENT BOARD (TWDB)...AND LOCAL WATER DISTRICTS.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
3401 NORTHERN CROSS BLVD.
FORT WORTH, TX 76137

PHONE: (817) 429-2631
E-MAIL: SR-FWD.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

--------------------------------------------------------------------

$$

HUCKABY/25


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.