Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
AXUS74 KFWD 160550
DGTFWD
TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-160000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

...EL NINO BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD...

FOR ADDITIONAL CONTENT...VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DROUGHT

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SYNOPSIS...

THE DROUGHT IS NOW IN ITS 5TH YEAR. ALTHOUGH THE AGRICULTURAL
DROUGHT HAS SEEN OCCASIONAL REPRIEVES...THE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT HAS
STEADILY WORSENED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NEARLY 30 FEET BELOW
CONSERVATION...HUBBARD CREEK RESERVOIR IS ONLY 14 PERCENT FULL. ALSO
IN THE BRAZOS BASIN IS LAKE PALO PINTO...WHICH IS AT 10 PERCENT OF
ITS CONSERVATION VOLUME. LAKE NOCONA AND LAKE RAY HUBBARD ARE BOTH
FELL TO ALL-TIME RECORD LOW LEVELS THIS FALL. AUTUMN RAINFALL HAS
PROVIDED MINIMAL RUNOFF FOR AREA RESERVOIRS...EMPHASIZING HOW MUCH
MORE RAINFALL IS NEEDED.

THE WORST DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE IMPACTING THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND AREAS TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS RANGE FROM ABNORMALLY
DRY (D0) IN EAST TEXAS TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) FROM THE
METROPLEX WESTWARD TO THE POSSUM KINGDOM AREA. ON SEPTEMBER 24...
POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE BOTTOMED OUT AT 983.74 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL...
ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1971.

EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE NOW IN PLACE IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WINTER. AS A
RESULT...LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...
WHICH COULD EASE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
A MODERATE OR STRONG EL NINO IS UNLIKELY...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT RELIEF.

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CLIMATE SUMMARY...

OCTOBER IS ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY...
BUT RAINFALL TOTALS THIS OCTOBER WERE LACKING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS...COMPOUNDING LONG TERM DEFICITS. HOWEVER...A HANDFUL OF
LOCATIONS TALLIED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH...INCLUDING
AREAS FROM WACO TO ATHENS AND PALESTINE.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NOVEMBER 4-6 RESULTED IN AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST HALF OF
NOVEMBER WAS DRY...WITH ARCTIC AIR MAKING A SUDDEN ARRIVAL ON
NOVEMBER 11.

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION...YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ARE BELOW NORMAL. DEFICITS OVER THE LAST 4 YEARS VARY WIDELY BUT
EXCEED 40 INCHES IN MANY AREAS.

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PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOKS FOR LATE NOVEMBER FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...BASED
ON DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT THAT ATTEMPTS TO PREDICT THE TRACKS OF
STORM SYSTEMS. STATISTICAL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES THIS WET SIGNAL
INTO THE WINTER MONTHS...BASED PRIMARILY ON THE PROSPECTS FOR EL
NINO.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH PACIFIC HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN
NORMAL THROUGHOUT 2014...BUT THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC HAS BEEN SLOW TO
FOLLOW SUIT. THE THRESHOLD FOR EL NINO CONDITIONS WAS EXCEEDED
DURING OCTOBER...AND ENHANCED WARMING THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
SUGGESTS A SHIFT TO EL NINO IS FINALLY OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF AN EL NINO EVENT THIS WINTER HAS DIMINISHED TO 58
PERCENT.

BASED ON PREVIOUS EL NINO EVENTS...THE PROSPECTS FOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION ARE GREATER TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THE WET SIGNAL IS
STRONG IN CENTRAL TEXAS BUT IS MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE RED
RIVER AND IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE STRENGTH OF EL
NINO MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE...WITH WEAKER EL NINO EVENTS HAVING
PRECIPITATION TOTALS CLOSER TO NORMAL. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
PROJECTIONS...A MODERATE OR STRONG EL NINO IS UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER FAVOR COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THESE ARE
BASED ON MULTI-MONTH AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS...WHICH CAN
MASK IMPORTANT DETAILS. PREVIOUS EL NINO EVENTS SHOWED A SIMILAR
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH CENTRAL
TEXAS HAVING A STRONGER COOL SIGNAL THAN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. DESPITE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE LONG TERM...DUE PRIMARILY TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER REDUCING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...PREDOMINANT
ZONAL FLOW ACTUALLY REDUCES THE INCIDENCE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXTREME COLD IS LESS LIKELY DURING EL NINO WINTERS...AND
THE OVERALL NUMBER OF FREEZES IS GENERALLY LOWER THAN NORMAL.

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HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE VAST MAJORITY OF RESERVOIRS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAS
LOST WATER DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS. AMONG THE LAKES THAT ARE
STRUGGLING THE MOST...SOME HAVE SET RECORD LOW LEVELS THIS YEAR.

 * THE LEVEL AT LAKE GRANBURY HIT AN ALL-TIME LOW ON JUNE 22 BEFORE
   A DELUGE IN ITS WATERSHED RAISED THE LEVEL BY MORE THAN 6 FEET IN
   JUST 2 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LAKE HAS BEEN STEADILY LOSING WATER
   SINCE THE BEGINNING OF JULY AND IS CURRENTLY WITHIN A COUPLE OF
   FEET OF SETTING A NEW RECORD.

 * LAKE NOCONA (MONTAGUE COUNTY) REACHED AN ALL-TIME RECORD LOW OF
   813.61 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL ON OCTOBER 10 BEFORE RAINFALL RAISED
   THE LAKE LEVEL BY 4 INCHES. A NEW RECORD LOW WAS SET IN EARLY
   NOVEMBER BEFORE THE LATEST RAIN EVENT.

 * LAKE RAY HUBBARD (A WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR FOR THE CITY OF
   DALLAS) ALSO REACHED A RECORD LOW IN OCTOBER AND WAS WITHIN 1/4
   INCH OF SETTING A NEW RECORD IN NOVEMBER BEFORE SEEING A RISE OF
   3 INCHES. THE LAKE HAS FALLEN AGAIN AND SET A NEW RECORD LOW ON
   NOVEMBER 15.


                        NEW              RECORD LOW          YEAR
                     RECORD LOW            BEFORE           DAM WAS
                    SET THIS YEAR      CURRENT DROUGHT     COMPLETED

LAKE GRANBURY      681.48 / JUN 22    685.28 / AUG 1978      1969
LAKE NOCONA        813.41 / NOV 4     816.95 / OCT 2000      1960
LAKE RAY HUBBARD   425.25 / NOV 15    429.72 / OCT 2000      1969

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WATER RESTRICTIONS...

ON NOVEMBER 1...THE NORTH TEXAS MUNICIPAL WATER DISTRICT (NTMWD)
RETURNED TO STAGE 3 WATER RESTRICTIONS...WHICH LIMITS LANDSCAPE
WATERING TO ONCE EVERY 2 WEEKS. SPRINKLERS AND OTHER IRRIGATION
SYSTEMS ARE PROHIBITED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM. THE ELEVATED
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE END OF MARCH. THE
NTMWD SERVES 1.6 MILLION CUSTOMERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CITY OF
DALLAS.

EARLIER THIS YEAR...THE FORT WORTH CITY COUNCIL MADE PERMANENT ITS
TWICE-PER-WEEK LIMIT ON LANDSCAPE WATERING. ONLY HAND WATERING IS
ALLOWED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM. ARLINGTON...ALSO WITHIN THE TARRANT
REGIONAL WATER DISTRICT (TRWD) SERVICE AREA...HAS SIMILAR
RESTRICTIONS BUT IS NOT READY TO MAKE THEM PERMANENT. DALLAS IS ALSO
CONTINUING ITS TWICE-PER-WEEK LIMIT. SINCE WATER RESTRICTIONS VARY
CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE METROPLEX...RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP
INFORMED WITH THE CURRENT GUIDELINES FROM THEIR MUNICIPALITY OR
WATER UTILITY PROVIDER.

VOLUNTARY CONSERVATION CONTINUES FOR BOTH WACO AND TEMPLE/KILLEEN.
HOWEVER...WATER RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOME COMMUNITIES
WITHIN MCLENNAN AND BELL COUNTIES.

THE BRAZOS RIVER AUTHORITY IS ASKING CUSTOMERS WITHIN THE UPPER
BRAZOS BASIN...AS WELL AS AREAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS WHITNEY...TO
REDUCE USAGE BY 10 PERCENT.

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NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN EARLY
DECEMBER.

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&&

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RELATED WEB SITES...

NWS FORT WORTH DROUGHT PAGE - WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DROUGHT

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM - DROUGHT.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES - WATER.WEATHER.GOV

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR - DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER - DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATES CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION AMONG
NUMEROUS AGENCIES...ACADEMIA...AND OTHER LOCAL INTERESTS. THE
EXPERTISE OF ITS MEMBERS HAS BEEN INVALUABLE IN DEVELOPING DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS.

THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (MAINTAINED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER) HAS ALLOWED VARIOUS IMPACTS TO BE COMPILED WITHIN
ONE CLEARINGHOUSE. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE AGRICULTURAL ISSUES...
HYDROLOGIC DEFICITS...FIRE DANGER...AND OTHER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES.

THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE CONTINUALLY MONITORS VEGETATION
CONDITIONS AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE STATE AGENCY ALSO MAINTAINS A
CURRENT LIST OF COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS.

OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE SUMMARIZED FROM A
VARIETY OF PRODUCTS CREATED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC).
CPC IS A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) ENTITY WITHIN THE NATIONAL
CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION (NCEP).

THE HYDROLOGIC DATA ARE COMPILED FROM NUMEROUS SOURCES...INCLUDING
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE)...THE TEXAS WATER
DEVELOPMENT BOARD (TWDB)...AND LOCAL WATER DISTRICTS.

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QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
3401 NORTHERN CROSS BLVD.
FORT WORTH, TX 76137

PHONE: (817) 429-2631
E-MAIL: SR-FWD.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

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$$

HUCKABY/25






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