Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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AXUS74 KFWD 060240
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TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
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337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-060000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
940 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014

...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) RETURNS TO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE OCTOBER 2011...

FOR ADDITIONAL CONTENT...VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DROUGHT

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SYNOPSIS...

THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE (SEPTEMBER 7-8, 2010) MARKED
THE UNOFFICIAL BEGINNING OF OUR CURRENT...WHICH IS NOW MORE THAN 4
YEARS IN DURATION.

ALTHOUGH THE AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT HAS SEEN OCCASIONAL REPRIEVES...
THE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT HAS STEADILY WORSENED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. NEARLY 29 FEET BELOW CONSERVATION...HUBBARD CREEK RESERVOIR
IS ONLY 15 PERCENT FULL. ALSO IN THE BRAZOS BASIN IS LAKE PALO
PINTO...WHICH IS AT LESS THAN 13 PERCENT OF ITS CONSERVATION VOLUME.
LAKE NOCONA AND LAKE RAY HUBBARD ARE BOTH AT ALL-TIME RECORD LOW
LEVELS. SOME RESERVOIRS BENEFITED FROM SUMMER RAINFALL...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY HAVE LOST WATER IN RECENT MONTHS.

THE WORST DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE IMPACTING THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND AREAS TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS RANGE FROM ABNORMALLY
DRY (D0) IN EAST TEXAS TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) FROM THE
METROPLEX WESTWARD TO THE POSSUM KINGDOM AREA. POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE
IS AT ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN OVER 40 YEARS.

THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WARMED RAPIDLY DURING LATE SPRING AND EARLY
SUMMER...BUT THIS WARMING SUDDENLY LOST ITS MOMENTUM DURING JULY.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN WARMING AGAIN IN RECENT WEEKS...
AND EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD DURING THE COMING
MONTHS. AS A RESULT...LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS FOR LATE 2014 AND EARLY
2015 FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...WHICH COULD EASE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

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CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SEPTEMBER RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDED 5 INCHES ALONG A PORTION OF THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AND IN PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. BUT FOR MANY
AREAS IN AND NEAR THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...MONTHLY TOTALS
WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL. SEPTEMBER WAS THE DRIEST ON RECORD FOR
DALLAS/FORT WORTH...WITH ONLY 0.06 INCHES RECORDED AT DFW AIRPORT.

THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION...YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ARE BELOW NORMAL. FOR SOME LOCATIONS...2014 IS AMONG THE DRIEST ON
RECORD (THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER). DEFICITS OVER THE LAST 4
YEARS VARY WIDELY BUT EXCEED 40 INCHES IN MANY AREAS.

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PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ON AVERAGE...OCTOBER IS ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE OCTOBER OUTLOOK DOES NOT FAVOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...EVEN NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH
COULD HELP EASE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

THE THRESHOLD FOR EL NINO CONDITIONS WAS MET DURING JUNE...BUT SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC RETURNED TO
NORMAL THE FOLLOWING MONTH. WARMING ENSUED DURING AUGUST...AND THE
EL NINO THRESHOLD WAS BRIEFLY EXCEEDED AGAIN DURING SEPTEMBER.
ALTHOUGH EL NINO CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO TAKE HOLD IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC...AN EL NINO EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING COLD SEASON. AN EL NINO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...BUT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A MODERATE OR STRONG EL NINO HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY. NONETHELESS...LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS STILL FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE LONE STAR STATE THE NEXT SEVERAL
MONTHS. AS A RESULT...THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK PROJECTS
EASING OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

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HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

MOST RESERVOIRS ACROSS THE REGION LOST WATER DURING THE WARM
SEASON...BUT THERE WERE SEVERAL NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS.

 * THE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS FROM DENTON TO GAINESVILLE THIS SUMMER WERE
   IN THE WATERSHEDS OF LAKE RAY ROBERTS AND LAKE LEWISVILLE...BOTH
   OF WHICH GAINED AROUND 3 FEET OVER THE COURSE OF THE SUMMER.
   DESPITE THE GAINS...BOTH RESERVOIRS REMAIN SEVERAL FEET BELOW
   CONSERVATION. SINCE THEIR PEAKS IN EARLY AUGUST...BOTH LAKES HAVE
   LOST MORE THAN A FOOT OF WATER.

 * LAKE GRAPEVINE GAINED A FOOT DURING THE SUMMER BUT IS CURRENTLY
   AT ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2007.

 * LAKE GRANBURY...LAKE PAT CLEBURNE...LAKE WHITNEY...AND AQUILLA
   LAKE ALL BENEFITED FROM THE JUNE DELUGE...BUT ALL REMAIN BELOW
   CONSERVATION LEVELS.

 * LAKE BRIDGEPORT MADE SOME MODEST GAINS THIS SUMMER BUT IS
   CURRENTLY OVER 23 FEET BELOW CONSERVATION.

AMONG THE RESERVOIRS THAT ARE STRUGGLING THE MOST...A HANDFUL HAVE
SET RECORD LOW LEVELS THIS YEAR.

 * THE LEVEL AT LAKE GRANBURY HIT AN ALL-TIME LOW ON JUNE 22 BEFORE
   A DELUGE IN ITS WATERSHED RAISED THE LEVEL BY MORE THAN 6 FEET IN
   JUST 2 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LAKE HAS BEEN IN STEADY DECLINE SINCE
   THE BEGINNING OF JULY...LOSING NEARLY 5 FEET FROM ITS POST-DELUGE
   PEAK.

 * LAKE NOCONA (MONTAGUE COUNTY) AND LAKE RAY HUBBARD (A WATER
   SUPPLY RESERVOIR FOR THE CITY OF DALLAS) ARE BOTH AT ALL-TIME
   RECORD LOW LEVELS.

 * POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE IS CURRENTLY AT ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1971.


                        NEW              RECORD LOW          YEAR
                     RECORD LOW            BEFORE           DAM WAS
                    SET THIS YEAR      CURRENT DROUGHT     COMPLETED

LAKE GRANBURY      681.48 / JUN 22    685.28 / AUG 1978      1969
LAKE NOCONA        814.08 / OCT 5*    816.95 / OCT 2000      1960
LAKE RAY HUBBARD   425.34 / OCT 5*    429.72 / OCT 2000      1969

                   * CURRENT LEVEL

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WATER RESTRICTIONS...

AFTER FIVE YEARS OF QUARANTINE...WATER FROM LAKE TEXOMA IS AVAILABLE
ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWING THE COMPLETION OF A NEW PIPELINE. THE NORTH
TEXAS MUNICIPAL WATER DISTRICT (NTMWD) RECOMMENDED THAT ITS MEMBER
CITIES ALLOW FOR WEEKLY LANDSCAPE WATERING DURING SEPTEMBER AND
OCTOBER. THE NTMWD SERVES 1.6 MILLION CUSTOMERS EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE CITY OF DALLAS.

EARLIER THIS YEAR...THE FORT WORTH CITY COUNCIL MADE PERMANENT ITS
TWICE-PER-WEEK LIMIT ON LANDSCAPE WATERING. ONLY HAND WATERING IS
ALLOWED BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM. ARLINGTON...ALSO WITHIN THE TARRANT
REGIONAL WATER DISTRICT (TRWD) SERVICE AREA...HAS SIMILAR
RESTRICTIONS BUT IS NOT READY TO MAKE THEM PERMANENT. DALLAS WILL
CONTINUE ITS TWICE-PER-WEEK LIMIT...AS WELL AS THE DAYTIME
RESTRICTION ON TRADITIONAL SPRINKLERS...THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
SINCE WATER RESTRICTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE
METROPLEX...RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED WITH THE CURRENT
GUIDELINES FROM THEIR MUNICIPALITY OR WATER UTILITY PROVIDER.

VOLUNTARY CONSERVATION CONTINUES FOR BOTH WACO AND TEMPLE/KILLEEN.
HOWEVER...WATER RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOME COMMUNITIES
WITHIN MCLENNAN AND BELL COUNTIES.

THE BRAZOS RIVER AUTHORITY IS ASKING CUSTOMERS WITHIN THE UPPER
BRAZOS BASIN...AS WELL AS AREAS AS FAR DOWNSTREAM AS WHITNEY...TO
REDUCE USAGE BY 10 PERCENT.

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NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN EARLY
NOVEMBER.

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&&

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RELATED WEB SITES...

NWS FORT WORTH DROUGHT PAGE - WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DROUGHT

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM - DROUGHT.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES - WATER.WEATHER.GOV

NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR - DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER - DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATES CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION AMONG
NUMEROUS AGENCIES...ACADEMIA...AND OTHER LOCAL INTERESTS. THE
EXPERTISE OF ITS MEMBERS HAS BEEN INVALUABLE IN DEVELOPING DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS.

THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (MAINTAINED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER) HAS ALLOWED VARIOUS IMPACTS TO BE COMPILED WITHIN
ONE CLEARINGHOUSE. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE AGRICULTURAL ISSUES...
HYDROLOGIC DEFICITS...FIRE DANGER...AND OTHER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES.

THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE CONTINUALLY MONITORS VEGETATION
CONDITIONS AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE STATE AGENCY ALSO MAINTAINS A
CURRENT LIST OF COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS.

OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE SUMMARIZED FROM A
VARIETY OF PRODUCTS CREATED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC).
CPC IS A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) ENTITY WITHIN THE NATIONAL
CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION (NCEP).

THE HYDROLOGIC DATA ARE COMPILED FROM NUMEROUS SOURCES...INCLUDING
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE)...THE TEXAS WATER
DEVELOPMENT BOARD (TWDB)...AND LOCAL WATER DISTRICTS.

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QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
3401 NORTHERN CROSS BLVD.
FORT WORTH, TX 76137

PHONE: (817) 429-2631
E-MAIL: SR-FWD.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

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$$

HUCKABY/25






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