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000
FXUS65 KGGW 151513 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
913 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN TO
MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY SLOTTING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
THIS MORNING. CLEARED SKIES MORE BUT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY TO THE GRIDS. TODAY SHOULD BE BREEZY AGAIN. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW. THUS
WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...TAPERING
OFF TOWARD THE SOUTH. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR SETS OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS
WHILE A HEAT DOME RIDGE IS NESTLED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MONTANA CURRENTLY LIES IN A ZONAL FLOW PACKED IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO LARGE AIRMASSES. A WEAK RIDGE RUNS UP BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO
ALASKA AND BACK SOUTH OVER THE ALEUTIANS. THIS RIDGE IS WRAPPED
AROUND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CENTER OF COLD AIR OVER THE CANADIAN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE SPINNING OVER ITS LOCATION AND MAINTAINING
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN THE TWO
LARGE AIRMASSES SHOULD ORIENT ITSELF ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA UP INTO CANADA AND MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HOWEVER
SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... PROGRESSION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE COLD
AIR UP NORTH WILL SHOVE EAST WHILE THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC STEPS ON SHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM AIR FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RISE NORTH AND WEDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH A RIDGE RUNNING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO WARMING INTO THE TWENTY CELSIUS RANGE.
WARMING NORTHWEST FLOW WITH PARTLY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS IS IN
STORE FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO MID WEEK. GAH

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAIN FEATURE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS UPPER LOW SLOWLY SPINNING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO MONTANA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
WITH BOTH THE RIDGE AND TROF.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE STATE MIDWEEK AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS EXPECTED TO DRAW WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS FLOW INTENSIFIES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES
EAST SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. EXPECT SKIES TO BE SKC-SCT050 WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SKIES WILL GO CLEAR AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING. GILCHRIST

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MILK RIVER NEAR GLASGOW.

A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER REACHES OF BEAVER CREEK
INCLUDING BIG WARM CREEK DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW