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000
FXUS65 KGGW 141543
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
943 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...GOING FORECAST IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING WINDY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. ONLY UPDATES WERE TO TWEAK
WINDS AND SKY COVER BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY HAS
ALREADY QUICKLY CLEARED AWAY THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE LAST
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD KEEP ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND RAIN
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. TRIED TO SHOW A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS TO MATCH OUR INCREASE CONFIDENCE AS
MODELS SHOW THIS CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ALSO SHOW GOOD SUPPORT WITH WIDESPREAD ENHANCED
WESTERLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY...EASILY SETTLING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WITH DAYTIME
HUMIDITY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT TODAY...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE JUSTIFIED AND AND RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS TO COMBINE FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILAR TIMING IS EXPECTED FOR
IMPACTS OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AS WELL.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COMFORTABLY MODERATED TODAY THANKS TO
THE FRONT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS UPPER TROF TRACKING FROM
THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD OUTLINES OF THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY PUSHING
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONTANA. THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BEYOND
THIS PERIOD MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE GREAT BASIN
TROF... WHICH COULD KEEP THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED
AT THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
THIS EVENING. SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ120-122-134>137.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW