000
FXUS65 KGGW 161522 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
922 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA AS A RESULT OF A DRY
SLOT THAT WRAPS AROUND THE PERSISTENT SASKATCHEWAN STACKED LOW.
THE EDGE OF THE ITS CLOUD DECK CAN BE SEEN FROM KGGW AS THE LOW
DESCENDS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL
LIKELY CLIP THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA TODAY...POSSIBLY WITH
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. WITH MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. ONCE AGAIN THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE
NEARER THE SURFACE LOW CENTER WITH WIND STRENGTH TAPERING OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH NO LAKE WIND HEADLINE...WILL MONITOR WIND OVER
THE LAKE FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY IF WIND GETS STRONG ENOUGH. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES...BUT
HIGHS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER TODAY. THE INHERITED GRIDS MATCH
UP WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS MADE MOSTLY MINOR
TWEAKS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...A WEAK TROUGH OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR SETS OVER
THE CANADIAN PLAINS WHILE A HEAT DOME IS BUILDING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MONTANA CURRENTLY LIES IN A ZONAL FLOW PACKED IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE AIRMASSES. A WEAK RIDGE RUNS UP BRITISH
COLUMBIA INTO ALASKA AND BACK SOUTH OVER THE ALEUTIANS. THIS RIDGE
IS WRAPPED AROUND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.

TODAY...CENTER OF COLD AIR OVER THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
SPINNING OVER ITS LOCATION AND MAINTAINING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN THE TWO LARGE AIRMASSES SHOULD
ORIENT ITSELF ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA UP INTO
CANADA AND MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY. AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSION WILL TAKE PLACE AND THE COLD
AIR UP NORTH WILL SHOVE EAST WHILE THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC STEPS ON SHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WARM
AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL RISE NORTH AND WEDGE BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES WITH A RIDGE RUNNING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO WARM INTO THE TWENTY CELSIUS
RANGE. WARMING NORTHWEST FLOW WITH PARTLY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS
IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY WITH THE FULL RIDGE ENTERING TUESDAY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. GAH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FEATURE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS UPPER LOW SLOWLY SPINNING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO MONTANA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
WITH BOTH THE RIDGE AND TROF.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE STATE MIDWEEK AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS EXPECTED TO DRAW WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS FLOW INTENSIFIES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES
EAST SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MILK RIVER NEAR GLASGOW.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW