000
FXUS65 KGGW 141530 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
930 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACE THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTING
INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE REDUCED MORNING POPS
SINCE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA SO NORTHEAST
MONTANA REMAINS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY. SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA COVERED BY
ITS CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR GENERAL TS. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO
ADJUST WX TO CURRENT CONDITIONS. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT KICKED OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING OUT
AHEAD OF IT IN AN AREA OF FORCED ASCENT...ENHANCED BY GOOD JET
DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COALESCED INTO AN AREA OF
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WETTING RAIN AS IT
PASSES THROUGH BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING AWAY FROM AN AREA WHERE
FLOODING WAS A CONCERN...HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. CURRENT FLOOD PRODUCTS THAT ARE OUT STILL LOOK GOOD. THIS
AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
ZONES THIS MORNING AS THERE IS STILL DECENT FORCING AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE CWA...THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWERING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND TRIGGER SOME INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE AND NOTHING TOO IMPRESSIVE. WILL EXPECT THOSE TO DIMINISH
AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...00Z NAM/ECMWF/GFS SHOW NORTHEAST MONTANA
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF TO THE
WEST AND THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER SASKATCHEWAN. SUNDAY THE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AND PROPAGATES
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A NICE VORT MAX ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A QUICK SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES...OTHERWISE AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO
BUILD...EXPECT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO DOMINATE WHICH WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST REGION DRY. WITH RISING HEIGHTS HAVE INTRODUCED
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE GRIDS. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR A
DRY AND MILD PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO POSITION TO BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND BEYOND.

MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FROM RUN TO RUN THE RIDGE
BUILDING FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH ADDS TO THE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE EC AND GFS BOTH
SUPPORT THE MID WEEK CHANGE BACK TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN.

CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN VERY
LITTLE CHANGE AFTER WARDS.            PROTON

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THIS MORNING THROUGH 16-17Z THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON WILL HAVE MORE
SPREAD OUT INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. WEST
WIND WILL PICK UP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PROTON


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MILK RIVER NEAR
GLASGOW.

A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER REACHES OF BEAVER CREEK
INCLUDING BIG WARM CREEK DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GILCHRIST/EBERT/JAMBA/MALIAWCO/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW