000
FXUS65 KGGW 142019
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
219 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE STACKED LOW IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. THEN
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OFF THE PAC-NW COAST WILL NUDGE IN TO SQUEEZE
UP A RIDGE OVER THE SPINE OF THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. BY
SATURDAY NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE UNDER A WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED THIS EVENING AND THE WEEKEND. SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MAJOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THE NEAR PROXIMITY
OF THE LOW WILL BRING ABOUT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDER THIS EVENING. WHEN THE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASES ON SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE CWA.

AFTERNOON WIND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15KT TO 25KT
POSSIBLY MAKING A WIND ADVISORY NECESSARY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.
HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A HEADLINE FOR SATURDAY. SCT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
UPPER TROUGH BY MIDWEEK. ONLY SIGNIFICANT TWEAK WAS TO CONTINUE TO
TREND UP TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN
CONTINUED MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION.
GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FOR A DRY AND MILD PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES INTO POSITION TO BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FROM RUN TO RUN THE RIDGE
BUILDING FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH ADDS TO THE CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE EC AND GFS BOTH
SUPPORT THE MID WEEK CHANGE BACK TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN.

CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WERE WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND...THEN VERY
LITTLE CHANGE AFTER WARDS.            PROTON

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SUB SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
INCLUDING HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
TO THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 02Z. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING AT 20 TO 30 KTS.

EXPECT DECREASING SKY COVER AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AT 15 TO 25
KTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LASTING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
GILCHRIST

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MILK RIVER NEAR
GLASGOW.

A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER REACHES OF BEAVER
CREEK INCLUDING BIG WARM CREEK DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
GILCHRIST/EBERT/JAMBA/MALIAWCO/SCT

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW