000
FXUS65 KGGW 111022
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
422 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTH FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL KEEP COOL AND
DRY AIR OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. A LITTLE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL
MONTANA BUT NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO MOVE TOO FAR INTO THE PLAINS.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DRAW VERY WARM
AIR INTO THE STATE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES
RISE TO AROUND 20C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
COOL MID LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PUSH COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MONTANA BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL AGAIN PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
80S FOR MONDAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY EVENING WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
STARTING TO COOL AFTER BEING ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS THUS FAR THIS
SEASON. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ZIPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRINGING A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK 850MB
TEMPERATURES FROM THE 20-26 RANGE MONDAY EVENING TO AROUND 10-12
BY TUESDAY NIGHT... WHICH WILL LEAD TO ABOUT A 15 DEGREE DROP IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE... PRECIPITATION UP TO 0.10 INCH POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN A
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... WHICH WILL
HELP KEEP NEMONT SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED. THE UPPER-RIDGE WILL REBOUND
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE
OREGON COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. AEC


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS
THIS EVENING. AEC

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW