000
FXUS65 KGGW 140940
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
340 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY HAS ALREADY QUICKLY
CLEARED AWAY THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
PERIOD KEEP ANY LINGERING SPRINKLES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR
CWA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND RAIN SHOWERS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. TRIED TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
POPS TO MATCH OUR INCREASE CONFIDENCE AS MODELS SHOW THIS CONSENSUS.

FOR TODAY...MODELS ALSO SHOW GOOD SUPPORT WITH WIDESPREAD ENHANCED
WESTERLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA
TODAY...EASILY SETTLING INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WITH DAYTIME
HUMIDITY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT TODAY...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE JUSTIFIED AND AND RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS TO COMBINE FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILAR TIMING IS EXPECTED FOR
IMPACTS OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AS WELL.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COMFORTABLY MODERATED TODAY THANKS TO
THE FRONT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS UPPER TROF TRACKING FROM
THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD OUTLINES OF THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY PUSHING
COLD FRONT THROUGH MONTANA. THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BEYOND
THIS PERIOD MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTH WITH THE GREAT BASIN
TROF... WHICH COULD KEEP THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FOR MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUSTAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. ALTHOUGH
COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITY...THE MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE ADDITION OF FIRE ZONE 137.
EXPECT THE MOST CRITICAL OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE REALIZED
BETWEEN THE MID MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR MTZ137.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
MTZ120-122-134>136.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW