000
FXUS65 KGGW 160207
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
807 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

EVENING UPDATE...
NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AS CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. LOW OVER
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES TO HOLD POSITION WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON ITS PERIPHERALS PERIODICALLY DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTION OF THE CWA. MOST OF THESE SPORADIC SHOWERS ARE PROBABLY
NOT EVEN HITTING THE GROUND AND WILL DIE OFF AS SUN DIPS DOWN. THE
OVER ALL LOOK OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW ON SATELLITE IS SUGGESTIVE OF IT
DIPPING SOUTH SLIGHT BY TOMORROW AND GENERATING MORE COVERAGE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER THIS IS ALSO WELL
TAKEN CARE OF IN THE POP GRIDS. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE WEAKENING STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING
OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND BEGIN TO FILL IN
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE LOW WILL BE
ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW IN EASTERN CANADA. CONCURRENTLY ANOTHER
STACKED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DROP SOUTH AND NUDGE UP
AGAINST THE PAC-NW COAST. THE COMBINED ACTION OF THE TWO LOWS WILL
FORM UP AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE MILD DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

THE SASKATCHEWAN LOW MAINTAINS THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING A LID ON TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER STACKED WINDS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY.
THIS COULD REQUIRE ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE. AS
THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST IT COULD CLIP THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDER ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS
A CONTINUOUS TRAIN OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SOUTHERN CANADA COULD YET
WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH. SO WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT
OVER THE NORTHERN PRAIRIE PROVIDING A PATH FOR THE WARMER DESERT
AIR TO BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND EXTENDING BEYOND THE SHORT
TERM. SCT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE DEPICTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS UNDER
UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN
COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO A GOOD THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE CONTINUED TRENDING UP POPS ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND MAKING FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS...ALL OF WHICH WAS WELL HANDLED IN THE GOING
FORECAST. GILCHRIST


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MAIN FEATURE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS UPPER LOW SLOWLY SPINNING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO MONTANA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
WITH BOTH THE RIDGE AND TROF.

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE STATE MIDWEEK AS UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS EXPECTED TO DRAW WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS FLOW INTENSIFIES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES
EAST SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW
SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z SUNDAY MORNING. WILL SEE DAYTIME CUMULUS
WITH BASES AROUND 6000 FEET AGL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MILK RIVER NEAR GLASGOW.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW