Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 271131
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
631 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow showers and flurries move through the area this
  morning.

- Turning warmer on Thursday and Friday.

- Low chances (10-50%) for precipitation (mainly rain) Friday
  and Saturday nights.

- Better chances (30-70%) for rain/snow mix Sunday night through
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

As of 330 am, radar is showing returns over western portions of
the forecast area. This is a bit earlier than indicated by
near-term forecast models, but these snow showers are pretty
high-based and will be encountering dry air near the surface.
A few spots could pick up a quick dusting of new snow this
morning, but most will just see flurries (or miss out entirely).

This activity dissipates and exits the area this afternoon, but
lingering clouds will help keep our high temperatures on the
cooler side again today. Snowcover will have a large impact on
temperatures. Highs may struggle to rise above freezing in our
north/west, but portions of Kansas could easily reach the 50s.

Ridging and warmer temperatures aloft move into the area for
Thursday, which should allow temperatures to reach the 60s in
the snow-free areas, but areas with continued snowcover will
probably be stuck in the 50s.

Temperatures on Friday will be similar, but northwest winds will
return as a cold front moves through during the daytime. The
latest NBM added a low chance for rain to the area Friday night,
but there seems to be little to no support for anything
measurable on the 00Z global ensembles.

The weekend will trend cooler, but not cold by any means. Most
will see highs in the 50s...just a few degrees below normal for
late March. There are low chances for precipitation (primarily
rain) Saturday night through Sunday as energy ejects ahead of an
upper low over the southwestern CONUS. Better chances for
precipitation then arrive Sunday night through Monday as a
northern stream shortwave moves dips through the region. Again,
this would primarily favor rain, but some snow is possible. The
NBM probabilities for 1" or more of snow have increased
slightly, with the 01Z run showing a 10-30% chance over the
northwestern half of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Low end VFR cloud cover and spotty snow showers are moving
through the region. Visibility could be reduced in one of these
showers, but the probability of occurrence and duration is too
low to include in the TAF.

Skies clear out again this afternoon. Some models hint at some
fog/stratus developing tonight, but this is likely being
overdone by modeled snow melt.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels


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