Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 301046
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST US. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATER TODAY. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXCEEDING AN INCH OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS.
AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE ONSET...COULD ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. EXPECT STORMS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH BEST FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE PICTURE MONDAY
NIGHT AS 45-50 KT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL JET
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. DON/T EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
WIDESPREAD OR STRONG. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...DRIER
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS TO NEAR 0.60 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH
WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER COLORADO/S DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES LITTLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONSEQUENTLY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
AND...THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT A FEW STORMS ALONG THE DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS...IN TURN...WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH MARKING AN UPTICK IN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MODELS STILL INDICATING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE POOLED OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARIZONA TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. DAYTIME WARMING
COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE INFLUX WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUDS
INITIALLY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT AFTER 18Z...BECOMING
MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 21Z. STORMS WILL FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 23Z...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
AIRPORTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH OR
MORE ALONG WITH A BRIEF LOWERING OF CIGS. KASE...KEGE AND KRIL
FACE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS LOWER THAN ILS BREAKPOINTS FOR SHORT
PERIODS FROM 23Z THROUGH 03Z/MON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN A PERTURBED STATE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



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