Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 280551
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1151 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...HAS MOSTLY MOVED EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
DIVIDE. HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST...WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE EVENING. NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD
BE A TAD BIT COOLER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE...AND DUE TO A DRIER AIR MASS.

HIGH LATITUDE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL CARVE
OUT A DOMINATE TROUGH ALONG THE LEFT COAST OF NOAM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PUSHES THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE DAKOTAS...BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED AS
THE SOUTHERN END WILL BE LAGGING BACK TO NEAR THE 4 CORNERS. DRIER
AIR IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE KEEPS
SHOWERS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE THE EASTERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
WITH THE ONSET OF DARKNESS AS FORCING REMAINS WELL OF TO THE
NORTHWEST. 315K SURFACES SHOW UPSLOPE FLOW DIRECTING MOSITURE OVER
THE LOWER PASSES OF NEW MEXICO THEN BACK NORTHWARD EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE POP BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE PREDICTABILITY AND PROBABILITY OF A LARGE WESTERN
NOAM TROUGH AND EAST NOAM RIDGE IS FAIRLY HIGH WILL INTO NEXT WEEK
SO CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE
PUSH OF MOISTURE UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY AND
A WEAKENING BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL FAVOR CONVECTION OVER
THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL THEN
BUILD FARTHER INLAND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADDITIONAL
TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AN INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY SHOULD
PEAK ON MONDAY OVER OUR CWA AS MED RANGE MODELS ARE ALL PICKING OUT
A MORE DEFINED PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING OVER THE REGION. BEYOND THIS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW APPEARS TO BE DRYING OUT...LEAVING THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR STORMS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH 10Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT KMTJ...AND KGUC
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR
VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ITS POSSIBLE THAT KMTJ MAY
BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE CIGS BELOW THE ILS BREAKPOINTS BETWEEN 06 AND
07Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT KTEX WILL BE AFFECTED...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT THERE TO ADD TO TAF EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL FOUNDER OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNRISE.
NORTH AND WEST OF THE LINE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 18Z. LATEST MODELS
SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DUE TO A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE THAT
AIRPORTS WILL BE IMPACTED BY RAINFALL THOUGH SITES CLOSE TO
HIGHER TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF AND UNPREDICTABLE OUTFLOW
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...NL



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