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000
FXUS65 KGJT 160207
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
807 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ALLOWED
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN COLORADO TO EXPIRE AT 800
PM AS A RESULT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN IS COMBINING TO SPARK THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON. GOES DERIVED TPW PRODUCT
SHOWS THE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE I70
CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO LESS DISTINCT...BUT APPARENT IN
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE BASED WINDS IS THE ENTRANCE
REGION THE UPPER JET ENTERING OUR CWA AS WELL. THE BEST STORM
ORGANIZATION IS SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS AREA AND LIFTING NORTHWARD SO
THE SOUTHWEST LOWER VALLEYS LOOK TO HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FROM THE ABAJOS TO THE SAN JUANS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SUNSET BEGINS TO STABILIZE THINGS.
HOWEVER MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ALONG THE 315-320K THETA SURFACES
CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE DIRECTED AT THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA
WITH PWATS INDICATING A BUMP UPWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UPSTREAM
THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER WAVE IN THE FLOW WHICH MAY KEEP
SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL
FOCUS ISOLATED POPS ON THE TERRAIN BUT LATE NIGHT STORMS OFTEN HAVE
DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS WITHOUT THE MOUNTAIN WIND SYSTEM IN
PLACE...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS AND WILL RUN NEAR PERSISTENCE.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MOIST
FLOW VEERS MORE WESTERLY...FAVORING THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE
FOCUS. PWATS REMAIN AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH WHICH IS RIGHT ON PAR
FOR MID JUNE. WITH SOME MOISTENING FROM STORMS TODAY THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING PCPN TO THE GROUND ON SUNDAY LIMITED THE
THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW INCLINE UPWARDS THROUGH
EARLY WEEK. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
BUT A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE AXIS OF THE BROAD RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
THEN SIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS INTO
OREGON-NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THOUGH THE GFS AND EC HANDLE THE PACIFIC NW LOW DIFFERENTLY THEY
BOTH EVENTUALLY SPIN IT INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS EVOLUTION WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER
THE REGION WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. THROUGH SUNSET THE
THREAT OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
TO AVIATION SERVICES AS LITTLE PRECIPITATION AND LOWERED FLIGHT
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED. THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST TERMINALS...KASE
AND KEGE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF VCTS BUT CONFIDENCE STILL QUITE
LOW ATTM. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BUT UNPREDICTABLE WIND GUSTS
MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE DISTRICT THIS LATE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED
IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. NO GOOD FORCING SEE TO KEEP STORMS GOING
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER NEW STORMS. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE NON-WETTING PRODUCING LESS
THAN 0.10 INCHES. VIRGA AND ITS ASSOCIATED GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND POSE A DANGER TO ANY ONGOING FIRE
ACTIVITIES.

SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEW WEEK. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE COLORADO FIRE ZONES.
SO ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY. THEN A
PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WHICH BRINGS A
DRYING TREND TO THE REGION. SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
MID WEEK FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
RH AND GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...JOE