Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 261757
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1157 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW...RAIN...AND LOW
CLOUDS TO OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOST SNOW HAS MELTED ON
ROADWAYS AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EASTERN UINTAH MOUNTAINS WHERE
WEBCAMS DO SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATING ON ROADWAYS. WRAPAROUND FLOW
FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO FAVOR THOSE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST IR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT JUST TO THE NORTH THAT WILL INCREASE SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION. WITH THAT IN MIND...ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR 4 TO 8
INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 8,000 FEET FOR THAT AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED ALONG THE UT AND CO BORDER SOUTHEAST OF
VERNAL THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AS THE LONG
CONTINUES ON THIS TRAJECTORY TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CARRY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THAT WILL WRAP AROUND THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS OF THE STORM. COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO
THE AREA REINFORCING THE CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH PLATEAUS...BUY SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT
SNOW ON ROAD SURFACES INTO THE EVENING...SO ONLY MINOR ROAD
IMPACTS AREA EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS PASSES. ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AREA EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW CENTER WILL REACH THE HIGH PLAINS STATES AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ERODING TO THE EAST AND NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SO AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE NEXT STRONG PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE
FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO THE LAS VEGAS VICINITY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE AS REMNANTS OF A WARM
FRONT SPREAD OVER THE AREA. THRU THURSDAY THE FRONT CONSOLIDATES
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND A DRY SLOT WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST UT.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW LIFTING NORTHWEST
AND DIRECTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...THEN CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CO FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST SATURDAY THEN MAY SURGE FURTHER WEST AGAIN SUNDAY AS A
SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE MAIN LOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
AND SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

WRAPAROUND FLOW FROM THE LOW OVER SERN WY CONTINUES TO PUMP IN
MOISTURE CAUSING CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ALL TAF SITES ARE SEEING MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ILS BREAKPOINTS BEING MET FOR MANY OF THEM. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP CIGS/VIS EVEN MORE REACHING
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...AT TIMES. VCSH LOOKS A SAFE BET FOR MANY
SITES AND ARE INCLUDED IN TAFS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
AFTER 06Z THOUGH CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR



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