Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 311034
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WATERVAPOR SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A NICE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN ID AND WEST WY...WITH A WEAK TROP
UNDULATION AND A MODERATE JET STREAM INDICATED OVER THE
NV...ID...UT TRIPLE POINT. THE FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAXIMA
IS RIDING OVER NE UT...NW CO...AND SOUTHERN WY...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND SOME SPEED SHEAR. BENEATH THESE FEATURES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NW CO
THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DECREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND CENTRAL CO TODAY... TAILING OFF
APPROACHING SUNSET.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
LOOKING AT DERIVED GOES IMAGERY AND RAOB PWAT PLOTS...VERY DRY AIR
WILL ADVECTING INTO OUR CWA WITH PWAT DROPPING TO UNDER HALF OF AN
INCH MID DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A QUARTER OF AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WHICH
WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE WEEK. COOLER AIR INITIALLY FILTERING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAVE HIGHS CLOSER OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BE BACKING DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SQUASHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE POLAR JET FLIES ALONG
THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED. DEEP
MIXING WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
DOMINATES THE SW U.S. WITH WEAK DRY WESTERN FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BY INITIATING ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE THURSDAY
AND STRENGTHENING IT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLIDE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OPENS UP THE FOUR CORNERS STATES TO THE NEXT MONSOONAL PLUME AS
WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SKY
COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY...AS HAVE NEIGHBORING OFFICES. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAND THE
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN...BUT THE PARTICULARS ARE HARD TO PREDICT THAT
FAR IN THE FUTURE. THE THE GFS CONTINUING WITH DECENTLY HIGH PCPN
CHANCES SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE FRI AND SAT
TIMEFRAME...AS THE ECMWF PLACES THE BEST MOISTURE AND PCPN CHANCE
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SO THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH
KEGE AND KASE HAVE ABOUT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXPERIENCE OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC/15
LONG TERM...15/CC
AVIATION...CC


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