Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 252142
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
342 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern mountains,
more numerous over the eastern Uinta range, will continue through
sunset then dissipate by midnight. Showers and thunderstorms will
be more isolated over higher terrain in east-central Utah and
west-central Colorado during this timeframe. Drier air south of
the I-70 corridor precludes moist convection for the remainder of
the forecast area late this afternoon and early this evening.
However, as the low center over southern California shifts to
central Arizona moisture will increase over the south while
divergence/diffluence aloft provides lift and the potential for
nocturnal showers toward sunrise.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage Thursday as
the low pressure system shifts to near the Pikes Peak region late
in the day. Moisture increase associated with this disturbance
isn`t profound at 0.40 to 0.45 of an inch precipitable water
according to latest model data. Consequently, expect storms will
be relatively high based and incapable of generating much more
than moderate showers. Meanwhile, precipitation will fall in the
form of snow above 9500 feet with accumulations at or above tree
line. Do not anticipate more than wet roads in the high passes so
will not issue advisory for snow. Expect winds to be reduced
relative to the past several days as the gradient relaxes across
the region.

Showers are expected to diminish Thursday evening except along the
Continental Divide due to their proximity to the low exiting over
Colorado`s east-central plains.

Low temperatures tonight and Thursday night will continue to hover
near normal while increased clouds and showers bring some cooling
to the area and lower than normal highs Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Wed May 25 2016

A shortwave ridge builds over the area Friday, but residual
moisture will fuel scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening. In fact, this trend
plays out during the weekend and into the first half of the coming
week as mean troughing persists over the western U.S. Temperatures
will recover to near normal Saturday and will remain at, or a
little above normal through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish over the
northern mountains this evening. Additional showers are possible
across portions of the San Juan`s and adjacent lower elevations of
the Four Corners region late tonight. However, VFR conditions with
CIGS above ILS breakpoints will continue. Gusty southwest winds
from 10 to 20 MPH with some higher gusts will diminish around
sunset which is at 0230Z/Thursday. Showers are expected to be
more numerous Thursday after 18Z, bringing a slight chance of
rainfall impacting the higher elevation TAF sites KASE and KTEX.
Elsewhere, it`s likely that VFR conditions with CIGS above ILS
breakpoints will persist. Look for lighter, terrain driven wind
flow Thursday.

&&

.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL



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