Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 272348
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
548 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS FOR TODAY TO RAP/RUC MODELS AS THEY APPEAR
TO BE HANDLING THE NEAR TERM WELL WITH A H5 VORT MAX HEADING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO FROM THE NORTH. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST HAS
CLEARED OUT EASTERN UTAH AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HINDERING DEVELOPMENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014
A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CO AND WY
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING AND MOVING STEADILY EAST. CLOUDS AND
PCPN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CO THROUGH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS. BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE CLEARING THAT IS NOW OVER MOST OF EASTERN UT AND SW
CO WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH REMNANT
OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS HUGGING THE MTS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN...SO
ISOLD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SHOULD STILL FORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS IN THE CLEARER AREAS SHOULD RISE ABOUT 10
DEGREES OVER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK...FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MT/WY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE DIVIDE. MODELS THEN SHOW A LARGER PACIFIC
TROUGH LUMBERING EASTWARD ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
STATES THIS WEEKEND...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ALSO ANTICIPATE AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON WIND ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH PASSES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY AT THE MOMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING PRACTICALLY COAST TO COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH SHOWN WORKING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WED WITH
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTH ALONG A STRETCH OF WESTERN COLORADO MAINLY EAST OF RIFLE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...WHICH WILL
HINDER SHOWER ACTIVITY IN EASTERN UTAH AND DISSIPATE ACTIVITY IN
COLORADO FROM WEST TO EAST. SHORT MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KEGE AND KASE WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL STAY VFR FOR THE ENTIRE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JAM


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