Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 012119
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
319 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODEST MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG...A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JETLET PASSAGE SUPPORTING
CURRENT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER THE
STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER ADJACENT VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WILL SEE THE TYPICAL DOWNTURN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A
LITTLE LESS MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS TOMORROW MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CO MTNS
WHERE THE NOSE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL JETLET WILL BE PROVIDING
ADDED LIFT LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET SETS UP OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND HELPS PULL PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL INCLUDE MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM
THE CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E. GFS AND SREF MOST
AGGRESSIVE...BUT ALSO MOST REASONABLE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
PRECIP WATER VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH...HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHEAST UT AND FOUR CORNERS...THURSDAY AND CONTINUE AT THIS
LEVEL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT AT THIS TIME...PRECIP WATER VALUES NOT
EXCESSIVE.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY AND THEN PASSES NORTH
OF THE REGION SUNDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME GETS SHUNTED TO THE
EAST AND WILL RETURN THE AREA TO THE NORMAL DIURNAL...MAINLY
TERRAIN-FOCUSED...CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GFS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE USUAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ON THE RIDGES AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE KTEX...KASE...KEGE AND POSSIBLY KRIL APPEAR
TO HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF BEING IMPACTED BY THE PASSING
STORMS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TO
AVIATION INTERESTS FROM 01/19Z TO 02/03Z. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
PLACE RESTRICTIONS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN PREVAILING FORECAST
ATTM. AFTERNOON UPVALLEY WINDS NEAR 310/10 MAY AFFECT LANDING
TRAFFIC AT KASE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL DISRUPTED BY
PASSING STORMS. OVERALL VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BEN
AVIATION...TGJT


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