Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 262350
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
550 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect 1 to 3 inches of new snow for the mountains with local
  amounts reaching near 6 inches possible by Wednesday morning.

- Below normal temps start to warm up Wednesday onwards as high
  pressure builds in. A return to above normal temperatures
  Friday and Saturday.

- Unsettled weather potentially returns late this weekend into
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Widespread showers have developed in response to steep lapse
rates, lingering moisture and a few minor shortwaves moving
overhead. Most of this activity is driven by the instability and
orographics so it should dissipate this evening. One exception
may be the central and northern mountains, which is where one of
the waves is tracking tonight. These showers may produce a
burst of snow and wind gusts up to 30 mph, which may impact
travel due to low visibility. The temperatures and peaks of
sunshine have kept the roads just wet. That could change after
sunset so be prepared for snow covered roads in spots. Given the
prolonged showers up north the Park Range under favorable flow
could pick get upwards of 6 inches in the highest elevations.
Other mountain ranges could get a few inches by this evening and
perhaps overnight. Tomorrow a ridge of high pressure moves in
from the west, and ushers in drier air and slight warming. The
models are hinting at isolated snow showers in the northeast
half of the CWA tomorrow afternoon, but moisture and therefore
instability will be limited. Also, the lapse rates weaken as the
ridge approaches. The impacts from any potential showers
tomorrow will be much like today. Despite the slight warm up
highs will end up below normal once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The axis of a ridge of high pressure centered over the Rockies
will begin sliding east into the Plains during the day on
Thursday. In its wake, southwest flow within a strong 110kt
250mb jet develops across the Four Corners as a deep closed low
descends southward along and just off the coast of the Western
U.S. Not only will this pump warmer air into the region, but it
will also supply a tap of more enhanced moisture. The moisture
combined with a weak wave embedded in the southwest flow along
with favorable jet dynamics in the left exit region will likely
result in the development of showers Thursday afternoon and
evening, primarily across the higher elevations in the northern
half of the CWA. The latest guidance more or less continues this
activity intermittently through the end of the week and into
the first half of the weekend. With the warmer air will come
higher snow levels above 7000 to 8000 feet. This should keep
impacts from snow fairly low for most with the exception of high
mountain passes during heavier bursts of intensity or at night
when the effects of a strong late March sun angle are lost.
Farther south, less clouds and precipitation will yield more
sun, warmer temperatures, and gusty afternoon breezes each day
through Saturday.

By Sunday, the closed low is progged to be just off the coast
of central California. Taking a look at the latest WPC 500mb EOF
patterns and cluster 500 mb heights suggests the most spread
and uncertainty lies within how quickly the closed low starts
tracking inland across the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and
Four Corners early next week. There`s also some variance
explained by just how much ridging and a potential anticyclonic
wave break poleward of the closed low will influence it`s speed
and evolution. These types of setups are notorious for cutting
off closed lows over the southwest which then lead to more
prolonged winter storms. Guidance isn`t explicitly showing that
type of evolution yet, but the clusters are definitely hinting
at scenarios with a slower forward speed and the potential to be
cut off. Something to monitor with future guidance packages.
For now, we can at least reasonably say that the latter half of
the weekend and first couple of days of next week are looking
very active and unsettled across eastern Utah and western
Colorado with the potential for widespread valley rain and
significant mountain snowfall. It`s still too early for details
and impacts, but the late season warmth and strong sun will
almost certainly be factors. A snowstorm that helps with our
snow pack but has limited societal impacts would be the best
case scenario, but we`ll see how things play out in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Highly variable weather conditions will persist this evening as
scattered showers continue to move across eastern Utah and
western Colorado. As showers move over terminals, VFR ceilings
and visibility are quickly dropping to IFR or even LIFR for a
brief time before recovering. Wash, rinse, repeat. Expect more
of the same for most TAF sites through the early overnight hours
before showers gradually diminish. Some leftover showers and
lower ceilings are possible in the northern mountains along the
Divide through Wednesday morning; otherwise, conditions improve
area wide by afternoon with skies becoming partly to mostly
sunny. Winds will generally be light and terrain driven, but can
become briefly gusty during showers.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...MDM
AVIATION...TGJT


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