Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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AXUS75 KGJT 181755
DGTGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-107-
111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-271730-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1155 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO....

SYNOPSIS...

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ALONG WITH
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST UTAH.

WINTER SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SEASON FOR
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. THE DUCHESNE RIVER
BASIN ALSO HAD MUCH LESS THAN NORMAL SNOW PACK. PRECIPITATION IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS WAS MUCH REDUCED DURING THE PAST FOUR TO FIVE MONTHS.
LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS HAVE RECEIVED MUCH LESS THAN
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND SOIL MOISTURE HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO REMAIN
DRY. PRECIPITATION FOR JUNE WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EASTERN UTAH
AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. THE FIRST 17 DAYS OF JULY ALSO HAD MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND DUCHESNE
RIVER BASIN...EVEN WITH A FEW DAYS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST IN ARCHULETA COUNTY HEAVY RAIN
FELL CAUSING SOME FLOODING...ALTHOUGH AT THE SAME TIME LIGHTNING
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN RAINSHAFTS CAUSED A NUMBER OF FIRE STARTS.

AREAS IN D2...SEVERE DROUGHT...INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LA
PLATA...MONTEZUMA...THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF ARCHULETA AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN DOLORES COUNTIES OF COLORADO. SEVERE DROUGHT IS ALSO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN SAN JUAN COUNTY UTAH. MODERATE DROUGHT...D1 IS IN
PORTIONS OF ARCHULETA...LA PLATA...MONTEZUMA...WESTERN DOLORES AND
WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES OF COLORADO. MODERATE DROUGHT IS ALSO IN
PORTIONS OF SAN JUAN...UINTAH AND DAGGETT COUNTIES UTAH.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

SEVERE DROUGHT...D2...IMPACTS INCLUDE HIGH WILDLAND FIRE
DANGER...CROP AND PASTURE LOSSES...AND WATER SHORTAGES AND
RESTRICTIONS. WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS FOR A FEW TOWNS IN EASTERN
UTAH ARE AT CRITICALLY LOW LEVELS. MANY WELLS IN SOUTHERN LA PLATA
COUNTY ARE LOW OR DRYING OUT.

MANY AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING THESE IMPACTS...AND IF CONDITIONS
PERSIST THESE IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

WINTER SEASON SNOW PACK IS MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE AFFECTED AREA. VALLEY PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO BEEN
MUCH BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH...

THERE IS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCES
OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR AUGUST THROUGH
OCTOBER FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE ENSO CYCLE IS NEUTRAL WITH
FORECASTS SHOWING A TRANSITION TO EL NINO. THERE IS MORE THAN A 50
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF EL NINO CONDITIONS STARTING LATER THIS
SUMMER.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

AVERAGE SEVEN DAY AND 28 DAY STREAM FLOW HAVE BEEN BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE AFFECTED BASINS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED IF CONDITIONS BECOME WORSE AND THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFORMATION
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GJT

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE
WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
WATER.USGS.GOV

NRCS U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
WWW.NRCS.USDA.GOV/

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER
DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USBR AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GRAND JUNCTION CO WFO
2844 AVIATORS WAY
GRAND JUNCTION CO 81506


$$

AS


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