371
FNUS75 KGJT 292022
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Thorpe Mountain Dr. RX...Oak Creek Fire Protection District
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
222 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 MDT on April 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A fast moving system will pass over the project area
tonight which brings a high likelihood of wetting rain. By
proposed ignition time, skies should be clearing with little to no
chance for additional showers during the day. Gusty west winds
and relatively deep mixing will bring excellent dispersal by
midday.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms
                    through the night. Numerous rain and snow
                    showers overnight.
CWR.................70 percent.
Min temperature.....31-36.
Max humidity........90-95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    25 mph through 2100, then decreasing to 5 to 10
                    mph with occasional gusts to 18 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Decreasing to poor (9000 knot-ft) overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................2.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 900 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 mph.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (5-15 percent). Scattered snow showers,
                    rain showers and isolated thunderstorms,
                    ending by 1000.
CWR.................20 percent.
Max temperature.....53-58.
Min humidity........21-26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 13 to 18 mph with occasional gusts
                    to 28 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to excellent in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................2 until 1000, then 1.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 8000 ft AGL at peak heating.
Transport winds.....West 23 mph.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Min temperature.....30-35.
Max humidity........73-78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to
                    10 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Decreasing to poor (4000 knot-ft) overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 500 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 mph becoming south 10 mph
                    overnight.

$$
Forecaster...Norv Larson
Requested by...Kenyon Shephard
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412712.0/GJT
.DELDT 04/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kenyon.shephard@oakcreekfire.org