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000
FNUS75 KGJT 190235
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Deer Mesa Rx...Norwood Fire Protection District
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
835 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2100 MDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Mainly dry and breezy conditions are likely to continue through
Friday with low humidity, excellent smoke dispersal, and very high
mixing heights. Similar weather is expected on Saturday, though a
weak disturbance will bring the risk of a few showers and possibly
a thunderstorm during the afternoon. That being said, the chance
for wetting rain from any shower or storm is very low. Instead,
gusty and erratic winds from virga are far more likely.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....66-71.
Min humidity........10-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southwest
                    and increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
                    Gusts up to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Becoming excellent by the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 10100 ft AGL by peak heating.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 25 mph.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....38-43.
Max humidity........40-50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph becoming downslope/
                    downvalley 5 mph or less overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft) overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 500 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 mph becoming east 5 to 10 mph
                    overnight.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Isolated showers
                    and possibly a t-storm around during the
                    afternoon (~25% chance).
CWR.................10 percent or less.
Max temperature.....65-70.
Min humidity........20-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the west
                    and increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near t-storms.
Smoke dispersal.....Increasing to excellent by the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 9900 ft AGL by peak heating.
Transport winds.....Increasing to westerly around 20 mph in
                    the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...Mark Miller
Requested by...Zane Truelock
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411369.0/GJT
.DELDT 04/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL wildland@norwoodcofire.com