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000
FXUS63 KGLD 190539
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1139 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. LINE OF STORMS
HAS STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SHOW THE LIFT DECLINING
FURTHER EAST OF THE STORMS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SO WILL
HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES DECLINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
STILL HINTING AT SOME STORMS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. LOOKING WEST THERE ARE STILL SOME RADAR
RETURNS FROM SCATTERED STORMS IN CENTRAL COLORADO SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCES GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE LIFT WILL BE
BEST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RATHER
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVERNIGHT DUE TO VARIOUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MESOSCALE STORM
COMPLEX SHOULD BE EAST OF KGLD BY THE START OF THE TAFS...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE BEHIND THE COMPLEX INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF KMCK...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY NEAR THE SITE. DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AND THE SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN HIGHER DEW POINTS
AROUND KGLD TONIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP. MOST MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING FOG FORMING ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY IS INDICATING
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH WILL INCLUDE A MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTION FOR KGLD OVERNIGHT.

MODELS ARE PLACING LIFT OVER KMCK DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE
LIFT MOVING EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT INCLUDE A
VICINITY TS IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE SITE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL