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000
FXUS63 KGLD 150529
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AFTER A DAY OF RECORD HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SOME CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING.

REST OF TODAY...ALREADY OBSERVING A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ON THE RADAR
THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY DUE TO TEMPS REACHING THE CONVECTIVE TEMP AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 10C/KM. HOWEVER...A VERY DRY LAYER
FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 600MB WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
STRONGER STORMS WILL CARRY A WIND THREAT DUE TO THE DRY
LAYER...THOUGH DURATION OF STORMS WILL BE SHORT DUE TO LIMITED
ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EXPECT COVERAGE OF
STORMS TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED...AND PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE DEEPENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM CALIFORNIA
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. LOCALLY...A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT

TOMORROW...LIGHT TO BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WITH COOLER TEMPS. 850MB
TEMPS REMAIN MILD BUT WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S VERSUS TODAYS UPPER
20S. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BRING CLOUDS LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH STORMS EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
STORMS SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN TODAY THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CAPE /UP TO
1000 J/KG/ AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...LIFTED
INDICES OF -4 TO -7...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM AND
BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30 TO 40 KTS. ONE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE
WILL ALLOW MOST TO HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE OVERALL SOLUTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY...SHEAR...THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND THE FACT THAT THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED TO BECOME A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH LEAD ONE TO BEGIN
TALKING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...BRINGING SOME COOLER WEATHER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THERE COULD BE AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE MAJORITY
OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES RETURN
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGERING WITH SURFACE FRONT
STALLED OVER SW NEBRASKA AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. VIRGA SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AT BOTH
TERMINALS...THOUGH VCSH COULDNT BE RULE OUT AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST AS FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT
POSSIBLE AT KMCK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

WITH FRONT STALLED ALONG KS/NE STATE LINE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASING WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WED AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCLUDED VCTS GROUP DURING THIS
ISSUANCE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR