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000
FXUS63 KGLD 132000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
UPDATED AT 156 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO GOING FORECAST. BUMPED TODAYS MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. GLD IS ALREADY AT 86
DEGREES AT 11 AM...BUT THE RAPID HOURLY RISES SHOULD ABATE FAIRLY
SOON AS WE MIX DEEPER. ALSO NUDGED HIGHS TUESDAY A BIT HIGHER
GIVEN THAT FORECAST 850 TEMPS RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES CELSIUS
TOMORROW.

*FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
 EVENING FOR OUR COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF A HOXIE TO LEOTI LINE. RH
 VALUES DROP TO AROUND 15% DURING THE AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH
 MIXED LAYER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 25 MPH.*

TRIMMED THE LOW POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON KEEPING THEM IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH SHOULD LIE ALONG KS-NE BORDER
BY EARLY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG INVERTED VEE SOUNDING PROFILES...
CURRENT THINKING IS MAINLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

THE MID-WEEK ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER EASTERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IS BETWEEN THOSE TWO FEATURES WITH AN
UPPER WESTERLY FLOW THAT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT...A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FROM MONTANA TO NEW
MEXICO. WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING LEE
SURFACE TROUGH...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY IN THE
VICINITY AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THAN THE WESTERN SECTIONS AS THE
SURFACE THROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH SITES. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT VCNTY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG CO-KS BORDER.
MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DUE TO
EXPECTED LOW HUMIDITIES ASSOCIATED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE
90S...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. FUEL CONDITIONS
UPDATED TODAY FOR GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES SHOW FIRES ARE LESS
LIKELY THERE DUE TO SPRING GREENUP.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ015-028-029-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DLF
FIRE WEATHER...DLF