000
FXUS63 KGLD 222022
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
222 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

REST OF TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT THE REST OF TODAY AHEAD...WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT KANSAS COUNTIES. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
AS A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE LLJ COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG CONDITIONS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW LYING AREAS WHERE
VISIBILITY DROPS BELOW ONE MILE. LOWS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S.

TOMORROW...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY MID-DAY...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE HIGHER
OR LOWER DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE RIDGE AND INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS WAVE SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERS PREDOMINANTLY DUE TO THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY
LAYER RH INCREASES TO 90 PERCENT OR MORE ACROSS MOST OF THE FA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
UNTIL LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST AREAS.  THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES UP THE RIDGE INTO THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN CHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 2400 TO 2800 J/KG
WITH 30 TO 40KTS OF SHEAR.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S WARMING TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FRIDAY TO THE
MID 80S SATURDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER FLOW
WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL INITIATE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. 850
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 C SO EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD
AND MCK. TODAY...LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
THIS EVENING...INCREASING OUT OF THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA...CAUSING FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF IFR VISIBILITY AT MCK. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE
MVFR DURING THIS PERIOD...LIFTING AFTER DAWN TO VFR LEVELS. SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JJM