000
FXUS63 KGLD 180503
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1103 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE STORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...AND AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.

SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE TO WORK WITH
OVERNIGHT...WITH VALUES OVER 1000J/KG IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE SOME TIME THE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH...IF THEY LAST THAT LONG...SO
A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 913 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

OVER THE LAST HOUR A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SIMILAR TO WHERE THE EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING
A LINE WOULD DEVELOP. SINCE 850MB WINDS WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST...AM THINKING THE STORMS MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE IT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE IN IS A CONCERN. AS SUCH
WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH PRECIP. CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER
CWA WITH H5 RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT
CURRENTLY...WITH AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OUR OUR CWA
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGGING TO INTENSIFY.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500
J/KG OVER OUR CWA AND SHOWS THIS INCREASING AS LAPSE RATES
CONTINUE TO STEEPEN. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVELY INDUCED QPF
IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING OVERSPREADING THE CWA AND THEN
LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM PUSHES SOUTH.
GFS/SREF SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE
AS HIGH. SHEER PROFILES SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEER 30-40KT...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY ON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
BE VERY MOIST...AND CONSIDERING THE VERY SLOW STORM MOTION (5-10KT
0-6KM MEAN WIND) WE COULD SEE ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AT THE VERY LEAST MOST LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
0.5 TO 1.00" RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY THINKING WE SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AT LEAST ONE CLUSTER/LINE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE. I ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED POP FORECAST
WITH MAIN CHANGE TO END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY TUE MORNING AS
WE SHOULD BE SUBSIDENT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING PV ANOMALY.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING BY WED AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING WEDNESDAY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH INTO EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY A TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS,

STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER EASTERN COLORADO EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THAT AREA.
PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AND TO THE EAST WHERE
STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS. GENERALLY LOWER POPS WILL BE
USED IN THE EASTERN FA. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA
THURSDAY SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST/NIL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S.
850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 WILL SUPPORT MID 90S FOR MAX TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER FLOW WILL
BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS WELL. IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH NIL
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WEST TO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH
SOME UPPER 80S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. RADAR INDICATES THE LINE
OF STORMS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS DECLINING. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CINH
TO HOLD STORMS BACK FROM DEVELOPING. THE AREA AROUND KMCK LOOKS
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBLE WINDS FROM THE STORMS. DID NOT
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR KGLD SINCE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
HAS A SHORTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY.

AM NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER THAT NEARS SATURATION SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
FOG. EVEN LOW CLOUDS LOOK QUESTIONABLE SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE TAFS EITHER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL