000
FXUS63 KGLD 151039
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
439 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY. THE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

FOR TODAY, A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES EASTERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH SPRINKLES OR TRACE AMOUNTS AND
ISOLATED MEASURABLE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK ON TRACK. PLAN TO
INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FA NEAR THE
UPPER LOW AS ITS MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION. FOR TONIGHT SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FA NEAR THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS SMALL AREA. SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DWINDLE BY 06Z THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
ARKANSAS. GOOD DYNAMICS MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS THIS EVENING. CAPE VALUES RUN FROM 1200 TO 1400 J/KG BUT
SHEAR IS LOW. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MOVES IN BY 06Z THURSDAY SO
DOMINANT TYPE WILL BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE HARD TO MEASURE. CONSEQUENTLY WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS.
SOME MORNING SHOWERS WILL POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA THURSDAY
MORNING AS MAIN DYNAMICS ARE OVER NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHEAST. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH BASED STORMS WITH LOW PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS REACHING THE SURFACE. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1500-1800 J/KG
AND SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WAVE
AFTER 06Z. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FAR NORTHWEST FA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BE A
VERY MINOR EVENT AS MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE FA.

850 TEMPERATURES INDICATE A CONTINUED WARM TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THROUGH FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...

GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR 500 MB PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY WITH A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD.  GFS HAS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.  CUT OFF UL LOW IS PREDICTED BY BOTH MODELS FOR 12Z
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE LOCATION DIFFERS GREATLY BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF.
GFS INDICATES STRONG VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA FOR
SATURDAY EVENING...WITH ECMWF HAVING MARGINAL VORTICITY PRESENT. GFS
HAS STRONGER 700 AND 850 MB JETS COMPARED TO ECMWF THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH JET MAXES OF 30-45 KTS ACROSS THE CWA. BECAUSE OF THE
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS OF GFS AND ECMWF FOR UL LOW...AREA OF UPPER AIR
INSTABILITY LATER IN THE PERIOD IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS
TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...

LONG TERM MODELS AGREE TO PLACING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 70S AS
COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY. GFS HAS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
STAGNANT OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEREAS THE
ECMWF INDICATES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLACEMENT OF UL LOW PRESSURE CUT OFF WILL DICTATE
THE SURFACE FEATURES FOR THE REGION NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODEL
FORECASTS AGREE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
70S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S AS WELL AS SURFACE THETA E VALUES OF 335 TO 340 K
INDICATES AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR.
SURFACE DRY LINE COULD PROVIDE NECESSARY LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE VALUES
DIFFER...WHERE GFS HAS 3000 J/KG AND ECMWF HAS AROUND 1500 J/KG.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE PERIOD WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MODELS SHOWING POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES EXIST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

WARM TEMPERATURES...SURFACE MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE GOOD CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE TRI STATE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE ONCE THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BUT CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH.
WINDS THROUGH THIS FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/MK
AVIATION...FS