000
FXUS63 KGLD 131747
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1147 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS IN THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INSURING THE MOISTURE
STAYS IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AS CAP ERODES. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN.

ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA AND BY
MID AFTERNOON WILL BE ROUGHLY NEAR A NORTON TO GOODLAND TO LIMON
LINE. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
RESIDE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE TO THE SOUTH IT WILL BE HOT
WINDY AND DRY WITH A RISK OF FIRE WEATHER. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK
HEATING...LEADING TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY STORM MOTIONS WILL TAKE THEM INTO THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS ARE
GENERATING COPIOUS QPF FRIDAY NIGHT...SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH STORM
MOTIONS OF AROUND 10KTS PARALLELING THE FRONTAL ZONE.

ON SATURDAY...A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS FRIDAY IS FORECAST BY THE
MODELS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT IN PRACTICALLY THE SAME LOCATION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW HAS
FLATTENED SOMEWHAT BUT HARD TO RULE OUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING
OUT OF COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...AN MCS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA LATE
SUNDAY AND PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE STILL IN QUESTION THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TO BE IMPACTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGH AND PWAT VALUES WILL
APPROACH 1.5 INCH. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS
INDICATE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO DISCERN SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO MORE CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...MID/UPPER
FLOW STRENGTHENS AS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
MOVES EASTWARD. THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHARPENS OVER THE
AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR
LOOSELY ORGANIZED/ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SINCE
STRONGER FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST
OF OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DAY SEVEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT GLD LATE TODAY DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. MID TO
HIGH LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT BOTH SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT AS THEY BACK FROM SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF MVFR
VIS/CEILINGS AS WELL AS GUSTS EXCEEDING 40KTS FOR A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD LATE TODAY AT GLD IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH TERMINAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

TODAY...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT IN KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIE NEAR A NORTON TO GOODLAND LINE IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA POSSIBLY BEING
MET IN THOSE PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR KSZ015-016-027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...JJM
FIRE WEATHER...024