000
FXUS63 KGLD 182353
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND NEW
DATA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE LINE OF
STORMS WILL LAST...AND WHAT INTERACTION WITH THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE LINE OF STORMS.
AT THIS TIME AM ANTICIPATING THE STORMS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO SUBSIDENCE.
MODELS ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN FIRING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
COLORADO. THE OUTPUT LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...BUT BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT WILL KEEP SOME
PRECIP. CHANCES GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY
FORECAST FOR KGLD FOR THE EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL LAST. AM
ANTICIPATING THEM TO BE THROUGH KGLD BY THE END OF THE EVENING.
WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY WHEN THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. FOR KMCK
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE CAUSED THE
WINDS TO BE MORE EASTERLY. AM ANTICIPATING THE WINDS TO TURN BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF KMCK TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL