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000
FXUS63 KGLD 140508
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1108 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
UPDATED AT 156 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO GOING FORECAST. BUMPED TODAYS MAX TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. GLD IS ALREADY AT 86
DEGREES AT 11 AM...BUT THE RAPID HOURLY RISES SHOULD ABATE FAIRLY
SOON AS WE MIX DEEPER. ALSO NUDGED HIGHS TUESDAY A BIT HIGHER
GIVEN THAT FORECAST 850 TEMPS RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES CELSIUS
TOMORROW.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR OUR COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF A HOXIE TO LEOTI LINE. RH
VALUES DROP TO AROUND 15% DURING THE AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH
MIXED LAYER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 25 MPH.

TRIMMED THE LOW POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON KEEPING THEM IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH SHOULD LIE ALONG KS-NE BORDER
BY EARLY EVENING. GIVEN STRONG INVERTED VEE SOUNDING PROFILES...
CURRENT THINKING IS MAINLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS.  THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP.  WITH VERY LITTLE ELEVATED
CAPE TO WORK WITH AM THINKING THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE SHOWERS.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STORM CHANCES DECLINE AS THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES MORE STABLE DESPITE THE DEEP LIFT STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.  THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF SECOND ROUND OF STORM DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 500MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  ANY REMAINING STORMS WILL
COME TO AN END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE ENVIRONMENT DRIES
OUT AND STABILIZES BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALLOW THE WINDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX DOWN TO
THE GROUND.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET IS ABLE TO MIX TO THE GROUND. THE WINDS WILL DECLINE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. A
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SHOW A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SO AM
THINKING ONLY CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING.  HOWEVER THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN CLOUD COVER FROM DEVELOPING.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY STORM CHANCES RETURN ALMOST EVERY DAY.  THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.  AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES A DRY LINE SETUPS UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE DRY LINE AND ACROSS THE
AREA EACH DAY.  SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE
FRONT SHOULD GIVE THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ONE OF THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RECEIVING PRECIP. DURING THE PERIOD.  PRECIP. CHANCES
MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SOME SMALLER SCALE
LIFT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
NEARING 90 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SURFACE TROUGH IN PLACE. SW WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL
DEVELOP OVER KGLD BY SUNRISE AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST...WITH SIMILAR WINDS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AT
KMCK. WINDS IN AFTERNOON COMPLICATED BY TROUGH POSITION...HOWEVER
CURRENTLY EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN BELOW 12KT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ015-028-029-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR