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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KGSP 091906
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A STRONG AND COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS INTO WEDNESDAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW CROSSES FLORIDA TO START THE
WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
H5 LOW DIGS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE WITH
SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING THRU CWA WITH BETTER FORCING. MOISTURE NOT
AS GOOD AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS ADVERTISED BUT STILL EXPECT CAT POPS
INTO THIS EVE...JUST WITH LOWER AMTS. TEMP/THKNS SEVERAL DEG WARMER
THAN FCST SO THE ADVSRY WILL BE DROPPED. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT STILL
EXPECTED TO WRAP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW THIS EVE...ALONG WITH
COLD FROPA...TO SHUT PRECIP OFF MOST AREAS. WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK UP TO THE GREAT LAKES...NW FLOW SNOW WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT THRU WED NEAR THE TN BORDER WITH 2-4 INCHES ACCUM BY LATE
WED AFTN. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...ESP OVER THE MTNS. MRNG LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S WITH A FEW TEENS IN THE MTNS SO EXPECT VERY COLD WINDS CHILLS...
BUT NOT TO ADVSRY LEVELS. WILL UPGRADE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FROM THE NC FOOTHILS ADJACENT THE MTNS...DOWN TO THE NC S MTNS AND
THE SC-GA MTNS. THE N AND CNTRL MTNS WILL BE COVERED IN THE
WSW...ALONG WITH THE NW FLOW SNOW...AND THE REST OF THE HIGH WIND
WATCH WILL BE KEPT IN PLACE WHERE LATER SHIFTS CAN DECIDE WHETHER A
WARNING OR ADVSRY WILL BE NEEDED. STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS WED WILL
CREATE GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT ELEVS SE OF THE MTNS AND TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 40S OVER NE GA AND UPSTATE SC...
U30-L40S IN THE NC PIEDMONT...BUT REMAIN IN THE M20S-L30S OVER THE
NC MTNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE EAST
COAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
DEAMPLIFIES. THE GFS FILLS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THE REMAINING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWS AND WARNING CRITERIA
WINDS CONTINUING. BY THURSDAY MORNING SNOWFALL ENDS AND WINDS
DECREASE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA ON ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL COVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND 850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY SUPPORT NO LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY...SO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY UNDER
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...WEAK SFC RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AND UNDER MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT...STILL
EXPECTING A FAIR WX DAY...BUT CHILLY...AS MAX TEMPERATURES ARE
FCST TO BE SVRL CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO. RATHER VIGOROUS LOOKING
CLIPPER TO AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
TRIGGER A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS...EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT. CONTINUED
CHILLY AS WELL...WITH MAX TEMPS STILL SVRL CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.

IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER...A PERIOD OF NC MTN NW FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR...BUT BLUSTERY
AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP TO ROUND OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE MEAN PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS
EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH LINGERS. SENSIBLE WX FOR THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL...STILL FAIR AND COOL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AT KCLT...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING CURRENT SYSTEM AND
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW REGARDING DETAILS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
ASSOC PRECIP HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN EXPECTED. KEPT MVFR
CIG WITH MENTION OF RAIN AND TEMPO IFR VSBY THRU 21Z...THEN IFR CIG
THRU 01Z BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR. VFR AFT 05Z. NE WINDS WILL SWING SW
AFTER 01Z...THEN NW AND GUSTY AFT 05Z.

AT KAVL...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTN WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY...TEMPO
IFR CIG...MIXING WITH OR TURNING TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVE. WINDS WILL SWING NW AND BECOME GUSTY BY 03Z. MVFR CIGS WILL
LINGER IN MOIST NW FLOW AND SCT SNOW SHWRS WILL BE PSBL.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT OTHER THAN TIMING DIFFERENCES. CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT EARLIER FROM THE SW THIS EVE. VFR AFT 03-04Z...06Z
KHKY. E TO NE WINDS WILL SWING SW LATE THIS AFTN...THEN NW AND GUSTY
AFT 03-05Z.

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NE WED AFTN-WED NIGHT.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW FLOW DURG DAY WED...WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KAVL.
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH WEAKENING WINDS...WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
GA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ010.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR GAZ017-018-026-028.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-059-501-503-505.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NCZ035-062>065-502-504-506>510.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NCZ036-037-056>058-068>072-082.
SC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR SCZ004>010.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RB