Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 271852 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 252 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will develop along a stalled frontal boundary over the eastern Carolinas, keeping clouds and intermittent rain along and east of Interstate 77 through early Thursday then the front will move to the East Coast. Drier and warmer weather is expected Friday into the first part of next week. A cold front is forecast to reach our region from the northwest in the middle of the week bringing another chance of rain and cooler temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday: Overcast skies remain in place across the eastern half of the area while mostly sunny skies are noted across the western half of the area this afternoon. Light rain has redeveloped again for areas near/along the I-77 corridor this afternoon. Have likely PoPs across these zones to account for this activity lingering through the late afternoon hours. No thunder is present within this activity, but isolated lightning strikes remain possible through this afternoon as daytime heating increases. However, thick cloud cover should limit this potential somewhat, so capped thunder chances to slight chance for now. Highs will end up a few degrees above climo across the western zones thanks to mostly sunny skies, and a few to several degrees below climo across the eastern zones thanks to mostly cloud skies. CAMs show rain chances lingering across the eastern zones this evening into early Thursday morning. The last several runs of the HRRR keep rain chances confined to the far eastern zones while the last few runs of the NAMNest pushes rain farther west and across the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area. With high-res guidance not in great agreement regarding the coverage of rain, capped PoPs to low-end likely this evening into Thursday morning. Also kept the highest PoPs confined to areas near/along the I-77 corridor since these areas are most likely to see rain. With cloud cover expected to fill back in across the western zones this evening into tonight, lows should end up around 3-6 degrees above climo across the forecast area. Winds will gradually increase overnight becoming breezy, especially across the mountains. Dry high pressure will build into the area from the west on Thursday, allowing rain chances push east of the I-77 corridor by the mid-morning hours. This will also allow cloud cover to gradually decrease from west to east throughout the day behind a departing cold front. Breezy winds will linger through Thursday, but will remain well below advisory criteria. RH values look to drop into the 20s across the mountain valleys and east of the mountains Thursday afternoon. This combined with breezy winds may lead to fire wx concerns, especially across northeast Georgia. Highs will end up a few degrees below climo across the forecast area Thursday afternoon thanks to cooler air filtering in behind the departing front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1210 PM EDT Wednesday: Post-frontal drying continues Thursday night and under a clear sky, temperatures will fall quickly. The loss of post-frontal winds will allow the atmosphere to decouple and give way to good radiative cooling with pockets of frost possible by daybreak. Deep layered dry air to result in sunshine for Friday as downslope aided warming boosts piedmont maximums to around 70. We are shaping up to be under a deep and warming westerly flow into Saturday with lower elevation maximum temperatures climbing into the middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Wednesday: Low amplitude upper ridging remains in place to start off the period with warm sector and downslope warming boosting piedmont max temperatures into the lower 80s for Easter Sunday. Token small pop will be maintained for NW NC closer to the developing ohio valley baroclinic zone. Upper heights are progged to rise even further to start off the work week/April atop the SE CONUS. Expect a mostly suppressed atmosphere on Monday, with further warming, a few degrees above persistence. Just like Sunday, token later day shower chances will be maintained for NW NC. During the latter half of the period, energy diving into the central CONUS will eject eastward, driving a robust cold front into and through the cwfa. It is probable that ridging will hang tough into Tuesday resulting in another warm day in the piedmont with diurnally enhanced storms firing around the ridge periphery, in the NC mtns. Latest timing of a early cold fropa next Wednesday may enhance storms east of the cwfa, we`ll see. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere...Conditions have been gradually improving across most of the terminals this afternoon, with the exception of KCLT and KHKY, where IFR cigs remain. VFR conditions are in place elsewhere. Light rain has redeveloped this afternoon across the eastern half of the CWA and is expected to mainly impact KCLT. Thus, have VCSH during the early afternoon hours with a TEMPO for -RA late this afternoon into early this evening. There is still the potential for some isolated embedded thunder at KCLT this afternoon, but confidence remains too low to mention in the TAF. KHKY should see cigs lift to MVFR levels later this afternoon. Winds will remain NE (east of the mountains) and WNW (across the mountains) through late this evening. There may be a brief lull in -RA this evening before -RA chances return yet again late tonight into early Thursday morning. So, have a PROB30 for -RA from 0400Z-1000Z Thursday. Confidence on -RA chances remains low as models are not in great agreement regarding the coverage/timing of -RA. IFR cigs are expected to linger through late tonight at KCLT, with cigs lifting to MVFR levels by ~0800-1000Z. Winds overnight will gradually turn N east of the mountains while remaining WNW across the mountains. Wind speeds will gradually increase overnight with low-end gusts expected at KAVL and KGMU prior to daybreak. Drier weather and VFR conditions will return at KCLT by mid-morning Thursday. For the rest of the terminals, dry conditions are expected this afternoon into Thursday. VFR should prevail outside of KCLT this evening into Thursday as well. Winds will remain WNW in the mountains and N east of the mountains on Thursday, with low-end gusts expected across the majority of the terminals, with the exception of KAND. Cloud cover will gradually decrease throughout the day Thursday. Outlook: VFR conditions will linger across the terminals through the weekend thanks to dry high pressure over the region. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...CSH LONG TERM...CSH AVIATION...AR

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