Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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AXUS72 KGSP 021357

857 AM EST MON NOV 2 2015

...The Severe Drought of 2015 Ended on October 6 for all of
Northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, and Western
North Carolina...

Precipitation deficits were erased by October 6, 2015 after an
upper-level closed low slowly pivoted through the Southeast U.S.
and allowed a deep and persistent feed of tropical moisture
originating from the Caribbean and enhanced by Hurricane Joaquin
to advect north and west into the Carolinas.  As of October 31,
2015, 28-day streamflows are measuring in the 40th to 95th
percentiles while groundwater levels are measuring in the 20th
to 50th percentiles. Reservoirs are operating near or just above
target pool elevations and all water-restrictions have been
removed. Above-normal precipitation and temperatures are
expected to continue over the next 14 days, therefore, drought
conditions are not expected to develop through mid-November.
Furthermore, strong El-Nino conditions are expected to persist
through the winter months, which have a high likelihood of
contributing to above-normal precipitation through early 2016.

Drought intensity occupying the largest surface area in each
county is listed below...


            AS OF:     AS OF:                  AS OF:    AS OF:
         11-02/09-17   11/02                11-02/09-17  11/02

Alexander   NO/D1  No Drought   : Jackson      NO/D1  No Drought
Avery       NO/D1  No Drought   : Lincoln      NO/D2  No Drought
Buncombe    NO/D1  No Drought   : Macon        NO/D0  No Drought
Burke       NO/D1  No Drought   : Madison      NO/D0  No Drought
Cabarrus    NO/D0  No Drought   : McDowell     NO/D1  No Drought
Caldwell    NO/D1  No Drought   : Mecklenburg  NO/D1  No Drought
Catawba     NO/D2  No Drought   : Mitchell     NO/D0  No Drought
Cleveland   NO/D2  No Drought   : Polk         NO/D2  No Drought
Davie       NO/D1  No Drought   : Rowan        NO/D0  No Drought
Gaston      NO/D2  No Drought   : Rutherford   NO/D2  No Drought
Graham      NO/D0  No Drought   : Swain        NO/D0  No Drought
Haywood     NO/D1  No Drought   : Transylvania NO/D1  No Drought
Henderson   NO/D1  No Drought   : Union        NO/D1  No Drought
Iredell     NO/D1  No Drought   : Yancey       NO/D1  No Drought


            AS OF:     AS OF:                  AS OF:    AS OF:
         11-02/09-17   11/02                11-02/09-17  11/02

Abbeville   NO/D0  No Drought   : Laurens      NO/D0  No Drought
Anderson    NO/D0  No Drought   : Oconee       NO/D0  No Drought
Cherokee    NO/D2  No Drought   : Pickens      NO/D1  No Drought
Chester     NO/D2  No Drought   : Spartanburg  NO/D2  No Drought
Greenville  NO/D1  No Drought   : Union        NO/D1  No Drought
Greenwood   NO/D0  No Drought   : York         NO/D2  No Drought


            AS OF:     AS OF:                  AS OF:    AS OF:
         11-02/09-17   11/02                11-02/09-17  11/02

Elbert      NO/NO  No Drought   : Hart         NO/NO  No Drought
Franklin    NO/D0  No Drought   : Rabun        NO/D1  No Drought
Habersham   NO/D0  No Drought   : Stephens     NO/D0  No Drought



Crop losses were extensive across the Moderate to Severe Drought
areas through the summer, especially with respect to corn and hay.
Dry pasture lands required the purchase of hay from other regions
in order to adequately feed livestock.  The Crop Moisture Index,
measuring short-term need versus available water, is currently
near normal across the forecast area.


As the drought persisted into July and August, reservoirs along
the Catawba System experienced pool elevations that restricted
boat ramp and dock access and lake navigation.  However,
reservoirs have recovered to near full pool and recreational
impacts have ended.


Despite the Moderate to Severe Drought conditions, mandatory
water restrictions, extending from Polk to Gaston counties, were
extremely isolated through the summer months.  Voluntary
water restrictions were in place for a few more municipalities
located across the Southern Foothills and Southern Piedmont of
North Carolina, but overall, municipal water supplies were able
to withstand the well below-normal rainfall through the summer


The current fire danger class as determined by the National Fire
Danger Rating System is low across the entire forecast area.


The month of October began anomalously wet across the forecast
area as a strong closed upper-low pressure system slowly pivoted
across the Southeast U.S. as Hurricane Joaquin was tracking
through the Bahamas northward into the extreme western Sargasso
Sea.  The slow movement and favorable position of the intense
upper low allowed persistent, deep-layer southeasterly flow to
advect and concentrate deep tropical moisture across South
Carolina, Northeast Georgia, and Western North Carolina for
several days, with the heaviest rainfall occurring from
October 3 to October 5. Following a widespread light to moderate
rainfall event from October 10 to October 11, the two-week period
from October 12 to October 25 was completely dry across the area
before a moderate to heavy rainfall event impacted the forecast
area to end the month.

Precipitation totals across the forecast area for the month of
October /31-day accumulation/ ranged from 2 to 4 inches from
Madison County to Avery County in the northern North Carolina
mountains.  Across the Central Mountain region of North
Carolina, 4 to 6 inches of rain occurred, while the Southern
Mountain region of North Carolina experienced 6 to 12 inches
of rainfall.  The North Carolina Foothills received 5-10 inches
of rainfall for the month of October.  The Upstate of South
Carolina received the most rainfall within the forecast area
with total October accumulations ranging from 7 to 16 inches,
while the North Carolina Piedmont, hardest hit by the summer
drought, received 4 to 6 inches.

Departures from normal across the area were mostly positive
across the forecast area, with the greatest surpluses, generally
3-8 inches or 150 to 300 percent of normal, occurring across the
Upstate of South Carolina extending into the Southern Foothills
and Southern Mountains regions of North Carolina.  Laurens County
experienced the greatest surpluses, in excess of 8 inches, for
the month of October, which equated to greater than 400 percent
of normal for parts of the county. Comparatively, where it was
most needed, the North Carolina Piedmont only received 1 to 3
inches of above-normal rainfall, which amounted to 125 to 175
percent of normal.  Finally, the Northern Mountain region
of North Carolina had smaller surpluses of 0.50 to 2 inches,
equating to 100 to 125 percent of normal.

No notable areas received below-normal rainfall for the month
of October.


Following an early November moderate to heavy rainfall event
across the forecast area, there will be another couple of
opportunities for light to moderate rainfall across the Western
Carolinas and Northeast Georgia through the next 10 days. However,
overall accumulations are not currently expected to be excessive.
Nevertheless, given wet antecedent conditions, isolated to
scattered minor flooding will still be possible with these future
rainfall events.

High pressure will build across the forecast area underneath a
mid-level ridge centered over the Florida peninsula following the
rapid departure of a mid-level shortwave responsible for
widespread 1-3 inch rainfall accumulations at the beginning of
the period.  Plenty of moisture will remain entrenched across
the area allowing drizzle and light showers to persist through
the Day 3 timeframe.  This will result in high temperatures being
near to slightly below-normal and much above-normal low

Thereafter, a deep longwave trough and attendant cold front will
approach the area around Day 5 resulting in a likely chance of
light to moderate rainfall.  High temperatures will remain near
normal and low temperatures slightly above normal to above normal
through Day 5. The cold front may stall near or just to the south
of our area which may allow light rainfall to persist through
Day 7, while yet another deep longwave trough approaches the area
from Day 10 to Day 12 and may bring a better chance for moderate
to isolated heavy rainfall to the area.  Temperatures may fall
to below-normal values following the frontal passage and return
to near-normal values late in the period in advance of another
approaching cold front.

Normal rainfall across the forecast area for the next 14 days
ranges from 1 to 3 inches, with the highest values across the
favored areas of the South Carolina/North Carolina border.
Forecasted rainfall over the next 14 days is expected to be at
least near normal to slightly above normal.


Over the next 30-days, there is a 40 to 50 percent chance of
above-normal precipitation and a 50 percent chance of above-normal


Over the next 90 days, there is a 30 to 40 percent chance of
above-normal precipitation and equal chances of below-normal,
normal, and above-normal temperatures.


Wet antecedent conditions owing to well above-normal rainfall in
October combined with decreasing evapotransipration rates as
deciduous trees lose their foilage and all plants prepare for
winter dormancy is resulting in the gradual increase in
groundwater storage and significant increases in streamflows and
reservoir elevations.  This has, in turn, slowly increased the
occurrence of stream and mainstem river flooding.


WELL MEASUREMENTS /Depth Below Ground Surface in Feet/

                              Depth  Date of         Change
                             During   Lowest  Depth   Since
                            Drought    Depth  Nov 2  Lowest
County       City              /ft/            /ft/    /ft/

Burke      Glen Alpine       9.86   Sep 20   7.53   +2.33
Caldwell     Granite Falls    14.43   Sep 24   8.15   +6.28
Catawba      Oxford Resrch St 41.34   Sep 27  41.13   +0.21
Chester      Leeds Fire Tower 90.60   Oct 06  90.53   +0.07
Davie     Mocksville       21.84   Sep 25  20.73   +1.11
Gaston     Pasour Mtn       45.42   Oct 06  46.52   -1.10
Haywood     near Cruso        6.61   Sep 24   5.35   +1.26
Iredell     Langtree         21.07   Oct 03  21.03   +0.04
Mcdowell     Pleasant Gardens 31.75   Sep 25  27.95   +3.80
Oconee       Tamassee         30.02   Oct 02  29.84   +0.18
Rowan        Barber           10.15   Sep 25   8.42   +1.73
Spartanburg  Croft SP         47.82   Oct 06  47.92   -0.10
Transylvania Blantyre         34.63   Oct 02  33.57   +1.06
Transylvania Pisgah Forest    17.35   Sep 25  14.08   +3.27
Union (NC)   Mineral Springs  32.30   Oct 06  32.72   -0.42
York         Rock Hill        26.38   Sep 29  25.04   +1.34

County       City            Record  Date of
                             Lowest   Record

Burke      Glen Alpine      10.66  08/04/2008
Caldwell     Granite Falls    14.73  11/16/2011
Catawba      Oxford Resrch St 41.93  01/15/2013
Chester      Leeds Fire Tower 94.20  07/25/2013
Davie     Mocksville       23.15  08/30/2002
Gaston     Pasour Mtn       50.31  01/31/2013
Haywood     near Cruso        6.90  01/05/1998
Iredell     Langtree         27.96  09/26/2002
Mcdowell     Pleasant Gardens 31.88  11/29/2010
Oconee       Tamassee         31.86  11/10/2008
Rowan        Barber           11.01  10/02/2002
Spartanburg  Croft SP         51.65  02/28/2013
Transylvania Blantyre         42.19  12/12/2008
Transylvania Pisgah Forest    17.86  08/26/2008
Union (NC)   Mineral Springs  42.48  01/09/2013
York         Rock Hill        29.62  12/22/2012


Total soil moisture anomalies for the month of October range from
20 mm to 100 mm above normal across the forecast area, with the
smallest anomalies occurring across the North Carolina Piedmont
and Foothills and the highest anomalies occurring across the Lower
Piedmont region of South Carolina.


As of October 31, of the 37 total ranked streamflow observing
stations across South Carolina, 11 percent of those stations were
experiencing 28-day average streamflows in the 25th-75th
percentile, 27 percent were in the 76th to 90th percentile, 51
percent were in the greater-than-90th percentiles, and 11 percent
were recording the highest ever percentile for the date.

As of October 31, of the 115 total ranked streamflow observing
stations across North Carolina, 2 percent of those stations were
experiencing 28-day average streamflows in the 10th to 24th
percentile, 27 percent were in the 25th-75th percentile, 51
percent were in the 76th to 90th percentile, and 20 percent were
in the greater-than-90th percentiles.


System            Percentile         Classification

Broad (GA)          76th-90th          Above Normal
Broad (NC/SC)       76th-90th          Above Normal
Catawba             25th-75th          Normal
Enoree              76th-90th          Above Normal
French Broad        76th-90th          Above Normal
Little Tennessee    25th-75th          Normal
Piegon              Greater-than-90th  Much Above Normal
Saluda              Greater-than-90th  Much Above Normal
Savannah            Greater-than-90th  Much Above Normal
Tallulah-Chattooga  25th-75th          Normal
Toxaway-Keowee      25th-75th          Normal



                          Pool  Date of   Pool  Change
                 Full   During   Lowest   Elev   Since
Reservoir        Pool  Drought     Pool  Nov 2  Lowest
                 /ft/     /ft/            /ft/    /ft/

James           100.0   93.84    Sep 24  97.24   +3.40
Rhodhiss        100.0   95.51    Oct 03  96.48   +0.97
Hickory         100.0   95.56    Sep 20  97.66   +2.10
Lookout Shoals  100.0   95.24    Sep 25  97.44   +2.20
Norman          100.0   93.53    Sep 23  98.51   +4.98
Mountain Island 100.0   95.13    Sep 24  96.48   +1.35
Wylie           100.0   93.43    Sep 26  97.96   +4.53
Fishing Creek   100.0   95.93    Oct 03  97.99   +2.06
Great Falls     100.0   96.44    Oct 02  97.50   +1.06
Cedar Creek     100.0   97.32    Oct 23  98.36   +1.04

               Full    Elev    Elev   Since
Reservoir      Pool  Sep 18   Nov 2  Sep 18
               /ft/    /ft/    /ft/    /ft/


Tanasee Creek 100.0   90.28   92.30   +2.02
Bear Creek    100.0   90.48   93.45   +2.97
Cedar Cliff   100.0   98.91   98.73   -0.18
Glenville     100.0   90.98   91.90   +0.92
Tuckasegee    100.0   89.93   99.83   +9.90
Nantahala     100.0   87.99   83.46   -4.53


Jocassee      100.0   95.83   97.79   +1.96
Keowee        100.0   97.12   98.07   +0.95
Hartwell      658.9  655.59  657.85   +2.26


The wet antecedent conditions combined with decreasing
evapotranspiration rates and expectations for above-normal rainfall
through at least late November will prevent a return to
drought conditions across the forecast area.  However, antecedent
conditions are not quite as wet across portions of the Piedmont of
North Carolina and the eastern Piedmont of South Carolina, where
isolated streamflows remain in the 10th to 40th percentiles.
Therefore, Cleveland, Gaston, Iredell, Lincoln, Mecklenberg, Rowan,
and York Counties have a small chance for a return to Abnormally
Dry conditions by the end of November if normal to above-normal
rainfall does not occur.

Proceeding into December and early 2016, strong El-Nino conditions
are expected to persist into the winter season which may contribute
to greater chances of above-normal precipitation for our forecast
area. Therefore, it is highly unlikely drought conditions will
develop through late winter of 2016. Given the already wet
antecedent conditions, the likelihood for minor flooding on streams
and mainstem rivers will increase through November, with the
potential for moderate flooding increasing into December and
early 2016.


This will be the final Drought Information Statement for the Severe
Drought of 2015. The next Drought Information Statement will be
issued when D1 or worse conditions return to Western North Carolina,
Upstate South Carolina, or Northeast Georgia.


The U.S. Drought Monitor /USDM/ is a multi-agency effort involving
NOAA/s National Weather Service /NWS/ and the National Centers for
Environmental Information...the U.S. Department of Agriculture
/USDA/...the U.S. Geological Survey /USGS/...state departments of
agriculture...the U.S. Forest Service /USFS/...state forest
services...the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers /USACE/...private
reservoir operators...state and regional climatologists...and the
National Drought Mitigation Center /NDMC/.

County-specific drought categories are derived from the NDMC`s USDM.

Agricultural information is derived from the USDA...the Climate
Prediction Center /CPC/...the North Carolina Department of
Agriculture and Consumer Services...and the National Integrated
Drought Information System.

Fire Danger classifications are courtesy of the USFS...the Georgia
Forestry Commission...and the North Carolina Forest Service.

The precipitation analysis is derived from quality-controlled
gridded precipitation estimates produced at the Lower Mississippi
River Forecast Center and the Southeast River Forecast Center.

The precipitation and temperature outlook is derived from guidance
produced at the CPC.

Groundwater levels and records are courtesy of the USGS.

Reservoir information is courtesy of Duke Energy...Georgia Power...
and the USACE.



USDM Classification Definitions...

North Carolina Drought Mitigation Advisory Council...

South Carolina Drought Response Committee...

River Conditions and Forecasts via the NWS...

Streamflow Conditions via the USGS...

Mid-Term and Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
via the CPC...


This product has undergone several revisions and enhancements
during the most recent drought period.  Additional enhancements
are planned for future drought statements. Your feedback and
recommendations are encouraged in order to ensure this product
meets user needs.  Please direct feedback...recommendations...
questions...and comments to:

National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office - Greenville-Spartanburg
1549 GSP Drive
Greer SC 29651
Phone 864-848-9970



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