Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
AXUS72 KGSP 251808
DGTGSP
GAC105-147-119-257-137-241-NCC075-173-113-099-087-175-
115-021-089-149-161-111-199-121-011-023-045-071-109-
035-003-097-119-097-179-025-159-059-SCC001-047-007-
073-077-045-059-083-087-023-021-091-081808-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
108 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2016

INTERMEDIATE STATEMENT #2016I1

...Severe to Extreme Drought Conditions Persist Across Northeast
Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, and the Southwest North Carolina
Mountains while Drought Conditions Spread into the North
Carolina Piedmont...

=====================================================================
SYNOPSIS...
=====================================================================

While most of November was extremely dry, the end of the month and
beginning of December brought some rare above-normal rainfall to
much of the area and ended the significant wildfires ongoing across
the foothills and mountains.  Impacts are reaching a minimum as
the winter season arrives which means that drought conditions are
unlikely to worsen significantly even if below-normal rainfall
continues through February.  However, if winter rainfall is
below-normal, impacts will significantly increase heading into
spring once the growing season commences and water supply demands
increase.

=====================================================================
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS BY COUNTY...
=====================================================================

Drought intensity from the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) occupying
at least 25% of surface area in each county is listed below...

------------
..GEORGIA...
------------

COUNTY       CATEGORY             INTENSITY       D1 DROUGHT
             AS OF:               AS OF:          BEGAN*:
             Aug| Oct| Nov| Dec   Dec. 20
             16 | 25 | 01 | 20

Elbert       D2 | D3 | D3 | D4    Exceptional     05/03/16
Franklin     D3 | D3 | D3 | D4    Exceptional     04/26/16
Habersham    D1 | D3 | D3 | D4    Exceptional     04/26/16
Hart         D2 | D2 | D3 | D4    Exceptional     04/26/16
Rabun        D1 | D3 | D3 | D3    Extreme         04/26/16
Stephens     D2 | D3 | D3 | D4    Exceptional     04/26/16

-------------------
..NORTH CAROLINA...
-------------------


COUNTY       CATEGORY             INTENSITY       D1 DROUGHT
             AS OF:               AS OF:          BEGAN*:
             Aug| Oct| Nov| Dec   Dec. 20
             16 | 25 | 01 | 20

Alexander    NO | D0 | D0 | D1    Moderate        11/08/16
Avery        NO | D1 | D1 | D1    Moderate        09/20/16
Buncombe     D0 | D2 | D2 | D2    Severe          05/03/16
Burke        NO | D1 | D2 | D1    Moderate        09/20/16
Cabarrus     NO | NO | NO | D1    Moderate        11/22/16
Caldwell     NO | D1 | D1 | D1    Moderate        09/20/16
Catawba      NO | D0 | D1 | D1    Moderate        11/01/16
Cleveland    NO | D2 | D2 | D2    Severe          09/27/16
Davie        NO | D0 | D0 | D1    Moderate        11/15/16
Gaston       D0 | D1 | D1 | D1    Moderate        10/25/16
Graham       D1 | D2 | D3 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Haywood      D1 | D2 | D2 | D2    Severe          05/03/16
Henderson    NO | D2 | D3 | D2    Severe          09/20/16
Iredell      NO | D0 | D0 | D1    Moderate        11/08/16
Jackson      D1 | D2 | D2 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Lincoln      D0 | D1 | D1 | D1    Moderate        10/25/16
Macon        D1 | D3 | D3 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Madison      D0 | D1 | D2 | D2    Severe          05/03/16
McDowell     NO | D1 | D2 | D2    Severe          09/20/16
Mecklenburg  D0 | NO | NO | D1    Moderate        11/15/16
Mitchell     NO | D1 | D1 | D1    Moderate        09/20/16
Polk         NO | D2 | D3 | D2    Severe          09/20/16
Rowan        NO | NO | NO | D1    Moderate        11/22/16
Rutherford   NO | D2 | D2 | D2    Severe          09/20/16
Swain        D0 | D2 | D3 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Transylvania D0 | D2 | D3 | D2    Severe          09/20/16
Union        NO | NO | NO | D1    Moderate        11/22/16
Yancey       D0 | D1 | D1 | D1    Moderate        09/20/16

-------------------
..SOUTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY       CATEGORY             INTENSITY       D1 DROUGHT
             AS OF:               AS OF:          BEGAN*:
             Aug| Oct| Nov| Dec   Dec. 20
             16 | 25 | 01 | 20

Abbeville    D3 | D3 | D3 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Anderson     D2 | D3 | D3 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Cherokee     D0 | D1 | D2 | D2    Severe          09/27/16
Chester      D0 | D0 | D0 | D2    Severe          11/15/16
Greenville   D0 | D3 | D3 | D3    Extreme         05/10/16
Greenwood    D2 | D1 | D1 | D2    Severe          06/28/16
Laurens      D1 | D3 | D3 | D2    Severe          07/12/16
Oconee       D1 | D3 | D3 | D3    Extreme         04/26/16
Pickens      D1 | D3 | D3 | D3    Extreme         05/03/16
Spartanburg  D0 | D2 | D3 | D2    Severe          07/05/16
Union        D0 | D1 | D1 | D2    Severe          10/25/16
York         D0 | D1 | D1 | D2    Severe          10/25/16

DEFINITIONS...

D1 DROUGHT BEGAN: The date D1 conditions began for a given county.
                  If a county is upgraded to a combination of D0
                  AND no category for at least 4 weeks, then the D1
                  DROUGHT BEGAN date is reset.  For example, if a
                  county was in D1, then upgraded to D0 for 4 weeks,
                  then returns to D1 on the fifth week, the
                  DROUGHT BEGAN date is NOT reset because D0
                  conditions never ended and the county therefore
                  never fully recovered from the drought.

USDM CLASSIFICATIONS...

D0 Abnormally Dry:     - 21st-30th precipitation percentile
                       - 21-30 percent chance of occurrence
                         IN ANY GIVEN YEAR
                       - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE,
                         occurs once every 3 years
                       - Going into drought: Short-term dryness
                         slowing planting, growth of crops or
                         pastures;
                       - Coming out of drought: Some lingering water
                         deficits; pastures or crops not fully
                         recovered;
                       - Streamflows below 30th percentile

D1 Moderate Drought:   - 11th-20th precipitation percentile
                       - 11-20 percent chance of occurrence
                         IN ANY GIVEN YEAR
                       - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE,
                         occurs once every 5 years
                       - Some damage to crops, pastures;
                       - Streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some
                         water shortages developing or imminent;
                       - Streamflows below 20th percentile

D2 Severe Drought:     - 6th-10th precipitation percentile
                       - 6-10 percent chance of occurrence
                         IN ANY GIVEN YEAR
                       - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE,
                         occurs once every 10 years
                       - Crop or pasture losses likely;
                       - Water shortages or restrictions common;
                       - Streamflows below 10th percentile

D3 Extreme Drought:    - 3rd-5th precipitation percentile
                       - 3-5 percent chance of occurrence
                         IN ANY GIVEN YEAR
                       - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE,
                         occurs once every 20 years
                       - Major crop/pasture losses;
                       - Widespread water shortages or restrictions;
                       - Streamflows below 5th percentile

D4 Exceptional Drought:- 0-2nd precipitation percentile
                       - Less than 2 percent chance of occurrence
                         IN ANY GIVEN YEAR
                       - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE,
                         occurs once every 50 years
                       - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture
                         losses;
                       - Shortages of water in reservoirs,
                         streams, and wells creating water
                         emergencies;
                       - Streamflows below 2nd percentile

---------------------------------------------
..A NOTE ABOUT EARLY DECEMBER IMPROVEMENTS...
---------------------------------------------

While conditions deteriorated across the North Carolina Piedmont,
much of Upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina was
upgraded one category in early December due in part to above-normal
rainfall beginning in late November.  However, the upgrade was also
the result of a reassessment of impacts across the region and a
comparison to the worst drought in recent record (2007-2009), which
indicated that the expansion to D3 and D4 occurred too quickly this
autumn.  Autumn is typically the driest part of the year and is also
at the end of the growing season.  Water usage is also declining
and reservoir storages are lowered to prepare for winter recharge.
Furthermore, if winter rainfall cannot restore reservoir and stream
levels to normal values, impacts will be far more severe than they
were this autumn, once the growing season commences, water usage
increases, and recreational activities increase.  This means that
there would be no way to communicate the increase in drought severity
if D4 conditions were already declared through the winter, as there
is no D5 category (D4 is already at the lowest percent-chance of
occurrence possible).  At that time, drought conditions
may truly begin to compare to a near-record or exceptional drought.

--------------------------------
..COMPARISON TO PAST DROUGHTS...
--------------------------------

The 2007-2009 drought was the worst drought for western North
Carolina, upstate South Carolina, and Northeast Georgia in terms of
severity and extent since the categorization of drought began in
2000.  The current drought is not yet as significant as the 2007-2009
drought.  For comparison purposes, the 2007-2008 drought began
(classified as the first presence of D1 conditions anywhere in the
region) in February 2007 and ended in early May of 2009 for a total
duration of 26 months.  During this drought there was an initial
intensity peak in late December of 2007, followed by a modest
improvement during the spring of 2008, but then the drought
re-strengthened through the summer and fall of 2008 before gradually
weakening through the winter and spring of 2009. Cabarrus,
Mecklenburg, Rowan, and Union counties in North Carolina experienced
an earlier end to the drought from October to early December of 2008.

=====================================================================
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
=====================================================================
-----------------
..AGRICULTURAL...
-----------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Drought Disaster Counties
-----------------------as of December 14, 2016-----------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

As of December 14, 2016:

STATE           COUNTY        TYPE

GEORGIA         Elbert        Primary
GEORGIA         Franklin      Primary
GEORGIA         Habersham     Primary
GEORGIA         Hart          Primary
GEORGIA         Rabun      Primary
GEORGIA         Stephens      Primary

NORTH CAROLINA  Buncombe      Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Burke         Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Cleveland     Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Gaston        Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Graham        Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Haywood       Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Henderson     Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Jackson       Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Lincoln       Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Macon         Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Madison       Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  McDowell      Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Polk          Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Rutherford    Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Swain         Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Transylvania  Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Yancey        Primary
NORTH CAROLINA  Avery         Contiguous
NORTH CAROLINA  Caldwell      Contiguous
NORTH CAROLINA  Catawba       Contiguous
NORTH CAROLINA  Iredell       Contiguous
NORTH CAROLINA  Mecklenburg   Contiguous
NORTH CAROLINA  Mitchell      Contiguous

SOUTH CAROLINA  Abbeville     Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Anderson      Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Greenville    Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Greenwood     Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Laurens       Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Oconee        Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Pickens       Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Spartanburg   Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Cherokee      Primary
SOUTH CAROLINA  Union         Primary

For more information on requesting assistance, please visit:
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/
disaster-assistance-program/index

---------------------------------------------------------------------

-----------------------
..WATER RESTRICTIONS...
-----------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------- KNOWN WATER RESTRICTIONS -----------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

STATE            CITY, COUNTY, or PROVIDER   STAGE  TYPE

Georgia        | Elbert County             | 1    | Voluntary
Georgia        | Franklin County           | 1    | Voluntary
Georgia        | Habersham County          | 2    | Mandatory
Georgia        | Hart County               | 1    | Voluntary
Georgia        | Rabun County              | 1    | Voluntary
Georgia        | Stephens County           | 1    | Voluntary

North Carolina | Bakersville               | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Banner Elk                | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Beech Mountain            | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Belmont                   | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Bryson City               | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Burke County              | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Burnsville                | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Caldwell County           | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Canton                    | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Catawba County            | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Charlotte                 | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Cherryville               | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Concord                   | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Gastonia                  | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Harrisburg                | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Hendersonville            | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Hickory                   | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Junaluska Sanitary Dist.  | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Kannapolis                | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Lincoln County            | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Old Fort                  | NA   | Voluntary
North Carolina | McAdenville               | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Montreat                  | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Mooresville               | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Sapphire                  | NA   | Mandatory
North Carolina | Sugar Mountain            | NA   | Mandatory
North Carolina | Tryon                     | 1    | Voluntary
North Carolina | Union County              | 2    | Mandatory
North Carolina | Western Carolina Univ.    | 1    | Voluntary

South Carolina | City of Union             | NA   | Voluntary
South Carolina | York County               | 1    | Voluntary
South Carolina | Greenville Water          | NA   | Voluntary

---------------------------------------------------------------------

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

Charlotte:      Irrigation only on Tuesday and Saturday, 6pm-6am,
                only 1-inch of water per week;
                No residential car washing;
                No pool filling, no fountains;
                http://charlottenc.gov/Water/Pages/
                DroughtCentral.aspx
Concord,
Harrisburg,
Kannapolis:     http://www.concordnc.gov/Resident/Community-
                News/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/882
Greenville
Water:          Outdoor watering only twice-per-week between 7pm and
                8am for no more than 10 minutes
                https://www.greenvillewater.com/
                dry-weather-leads-to-voluntary-water-restrictions/

York County:    Outdoor watering limited to only two days per week;
                Reduce outdoor washing

Hendersonville: Customers to reduce water usage by 10%;
                Preparing to connect to French Broad River to
                avoid Stage 2, Mandatory water restrictions pending
                State of Emergency declaration from North Carolina.

Calls to Action...
------------------

The public in encouraged to contact their local municipalities to
confirm the lack of water restrictions in their specific area.
Please be mindful of drought conditions in your area even if your
community is not officially under water restrictions.  Limit outdoor
watering and conserve water use indoors whenever possible.

--------------------
..WILDFIRE DANGER...
--------------------

Calls to Action...
------------------

Residents are encouraged to contact their local municipalities,
including their local county forest ranger prior to burning leaves
and yard debris.  Small leaf fires can quickly grow out of control
during periods of extreme dryness, as other vegetation and
decomposing organic materials on the surface are more prone to
ignition.  Please exercise extreme caution, monitor the latest
weather forecasts for lightning and winds and obey all local burn
ban ordinances for your safety and the protection of your
property.  Careless debris burning is the top cause of wildfires.

Smokers need to properly dispose of cigarettes as even the smallest
spark can ignite a wildfire. Campers should clear a 10 foot safe
area around their campfires and never leave campfires unattended.
All yard debris and camp fires must be completely extinguished
before unattending.

Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook...
----------------------------------------------

The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook from the NIFC
calls for fire potential in November returning to
near normal for December 2016 through February 2017.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------- FIRE DANGER and KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) ---------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

              CURRENT         KBDI**     KBDI DEPARTURE
REGION*       FIRE            (12/22)    FROM NORMAL
              DANGER (12/22)             (12/22)

NC Piedmont   Moderate-High |  201-400 | +200-+400 Well Abv Nrml
NC Foothills  Moderate-High |  201-500 | +200->400 Well Abv Nrml
NC Nrn Mnts   High          |  <100    | - 50-+ 50 Normal
NC Cntl Mnts  Moderate      |  101-400 | + 50-400  Abv Nrml
NC Srn Mnts   Moderate      |  101-400 | - 50-+300 Slightly Abv Nrml

SC Mnts/      Moderate      |  101-500 | +100->400 Well Abv Nrml
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   Moderate      |  201-500 | +200->400 Well Abv Nrml

GA NE Mnts/   Moderate-High |  201-400 | +200-+400 Well Abv Nrml
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Moderate-High |  201-400 | +200-+400 Well Abv Nrml

DEFINITIONS...

*A list of all counties and their assigned geographical region
appears near the end of the Drought Information Statement.

**KBDI and measures the impact of evapotranspiration and
precipitation on moisture deficiencies in the upper soil layer and
the layer of decomposing organic materials just above the soil.
A value of zero represents no moisture deficiency while a value of
800 is the maximum deficiency measured.  This means for a value of
800, it will take 8.00 inches of rainfall in 24-hours to reduce the
index to zero or saturation.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE SUMMARY...
=====================================================================

---------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------- RECORDS BROKEN SINCE OCTOBER 30, 2016 ----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                                       NEW     PREVIOUS
DATE    SITE          TYPE             RECORD  RECORD (YEAR)

10/31 | AVL Airport | Max Temp       | 81    | 79 (2004)
10/31 | GSP Airport | Max Temp       | 84 T  | 84 (1950)
11/29 | CLT Airport | High Min Temp  | 60    | 58 (1957)
11/29 | GSP Airport | High Min Temp  | 60 T  | 60 (2006)
11/30 | AVL Airport | High Min Temp  | 59    | 56 (1985)
11/30 | CLT Airport | High Min Temp  | 63    | 59 (2006)
11/30 | Concord     | Monthly Precip | 0.42" | 0.50" (1941)

DEFINITIONS:

T = Tied

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------- MEASURED RAINFALL FOR OCTOBER 2016 -----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                              OCT   DEPT.     %
                             2016   FROM     OF  DRIEST     WET
CITY          COUNTY       PRECIP   NRML   NRML    RANK    RANK
                             (in)   (in)    (%)

GEORGIA
Carnesville | Franklin    | 0.41 | -3.57 |   10 |   8th | >25th
Clayton     | Rabun       | 0.96 | -3.87 |   20 |  12th | >25th
Elberton    | Elbert      | 0.03 | -3.40 |    1 |   2nd | >25th
Hartwell    | Hart        | 0.13 | -3.37 |    4 |   3rd |
Toccoa      | Stephens    | 0.49 | -3.96 |   11 |   7th | >25th

NORTH CAROLINA
AVL Airport | Buncombe    | 0.52 | -2.39 |   18 |   6th | >25th
CLT Airport | Mecklenburg | 2.78 | -0.62 |   82 | >25th |  14th
Concord     | Cabarrus    | 3.10 | -0.56 |   85 | >25th | >25th
Hickory     | Catawba     | 1.01 | -2.54 |   28 |   8th | >25th
Lenoir      | Caldwell    | 1.53 | -1.87 |   45 | >25th | >25th
Lincolnton  | Lincoln     | 0.91 | -3.23 |   22 |   5th | >25th
Marshall    | Madison     | 0.55 | -1.48 |   27 |  10th | >25th
Salisbury   | Rowan       | 3.31 |  0.00 |  100 | >25th | >25th
Tryon       | Polk        | 0.86 | -3.79 |   18 |  10th | >25th
Waynesville | Haywood     | 0.37 | -2.28 |   14 |   6th | >25th

SOUTH CAROLINA
Anderson    | Anderson    | 0.46 | -2.65 |   15 |   9th | >25th
Chesnee     | Spartanburg | 1.08 | -2.87 |   27 |  16th | >25th
GSP Airport | Spartanburg | 0.44 | -3.00 |   13 |   6th | >25th
Laurens     | Laurens     | 0.55 | -2.98 |   16 |  10th | >25th
Rock Hill   | York        | 3.14 | -0.45 |   87 |  14th |   5th
Walhalla    | Oconee      | 1.64 | -2.58 |   39 |  21st | >25th


---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------- MEASURED RAINFALL FOR NOVEMBER 2016 -----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                              NOV   DEPT.     %
                             2016   FROM     OF  DRIEST     WET
CITY          COUNTY       PRECIP   NRML   NRML    RANK    RANK
                             (in)   (in)    (%)

GEORGIA
Carnesville | Franklin    | 1.63 | -2.18 |   43 |   9th | >25th
Clayton     | Rabun       | 2.51 | -3.52 |   42 |  23rd | >25th
Elberton    | Elbert      | 1.57 | -2.18 |   42 |  17th | >25th
Hartwell    | Hart        | 1.33 | -2.53 |   34 |  13th | >25th
Toccoa      | Stephens    | 1.95 | -2.57 |   43 |  21st | >25th

NORTH CAROLINA
AVL Airport | Buncombe    | 1.54 | -2.11 |   42 |   7th | >25th
CLT Airport | Mecklenburg | 0.88 | -2.26 |   28 |  10th | >25th
Concord     | Cabarrus    | 0.42 | -2.93 |   13 |   1st | >25th
Hickory     | Catawba     | 1.68 | -1.78 |   49 |  13th | >25th
Lenoir      | Caldwell    | 1.17 | -2.08 |   36 |  18th | >25th
Lincolnton  | Lincoln     | 0.85 | -2.70 |   24 |   3rd | >25th
Marshall    | Madison     | 0.75 | -2.06 |   27 |  10th | >25th
Salisbury   | Rowan       | 0.48 | -2.59 |   16 |   7th | >25th
Tryon       | Polk        | 2.21 | -2.59 |   46 |  18th | >25th
Waynesville | Haywood     | 1.47 | -2.31 |   39 |  20th | >25th

SOUTH CAROLINA
Anderson    | Anderson    | 1.90 | -1.69 |   53 |  15th | >25th
Chesnee     | Spartanburg | 1.27 | -2.65 |   32 |  10th | >25th
GSP Airport | Spartanburg | 2.08 | -1.62 |   56 |  11th | >25th
Laurens     | Laurens     | 1.23 | -2.27 |   35 |  17th | >25th
Rock Hill   | York        | 0.94 | -2.39 |   28 |   2nd |  17th
Walhalla    | Oconee      | 1.76 | -2.87 |   38 |  10th | >25th

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
PRECIPITATION and TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK*...
=====================================================================

* The weather, temperature, and precipitation outlook is based
on the best available guidance and weather pattern analysis at
the issuance time of this statement.

For the LATEST FORECAST for the region, please visit:
http://weather.gov/gsp
and enter your zip code or click on the Watch, Warning, and
Advisories (WWA) map.

For the LATEST DISCUSSION for the region, please visit:
http://weather.gov/gsp
and click on the Forecaster`s Discussion link below the WWA map

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------  7-DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST --------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

              FORECASTED   NORMAL       DEPARTURE
REGION        PRECIP       PRECIP       FROM NORMAL
              (in)         (in)         CLASSIFICATION

NC Piedmont   0.75-1.25 |  0.75-1.00 |  Near Normal
NC Foothills  1.00-1.50 |  0.75-1.25 |  Slightly Above Normal
NC Nrn Mnts   1.50-1.75 |  0.75-1.25 |  Above Normal
NC Cntl Mnts  1.25-1.75 |  0.50-2.00 |  Slightly Above Normal
NC Srn Mnts   1.25-1.75 |  1.00-2.00 |  Near Normal

SC Mnts/      1.00-1.50 |  1.00-1.50 |  Near Normal
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   0.75-1.00 |  0.75-1.00 |  Near Normal

GA NE Mnts/   1.25-1.75 |  1.00-2.00 |  Near Normal
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   0.75-1.25 |  0.75-1.00 |  Near Normal
---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY and OUTLOOK...
=====================================================================

--------------------
..IMPORTANT NOTES...
--------------------

It is very important to note that flash flooding and flooding
of smaller tributaries is still very possible during periods of
drought.  Several important and damaging flash floods have
were observed this past summer despite the drought.  Residents are
strongly encouraged to heed related flood advisories and warnings,
even during significant drought.

The late fall and winter months are a critical time for the water
system as widespread winter precipitation normally restores
streamflows and reservoir levels following the spotty, convective
nature of precipitation during the summer and the drier weeks of
early fall.  This recharge of the water system is critical for
adequate water supply heading into the late spring and summer of
2017.  When the winter begins in a significant drought, it takes a
greater amount of precipitation to adequately complete this recharge.

-----------------
..GROUNDWATER*...
-----------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------ GROUNDWATER WELL MEASUREMENTS --------------------
---------------- Depth Below Ground Surface in Feet -----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                                             CHANGE***RECORD
                              DEPTH*  DEC**  SINCE    LOWEST  and
                              12/22   MEDIAN 11/28#   LEVEL   DATE
COUNTY       LOCATION         (ft)    (ft)   (ft)     (ft)

Burke      Glen Alpine      12.63 | 11.23 | -0.37 | 13.84, 09/04/11
Caldwell     Granite Falls    25.62 | 21.64 | +0.96 | 25.62, 12/22/16
Catawba      Oxford Resrch St 40.20 | 39.74 | +0.25 | 42.09, 01/14/13
Gaston       Pasour Mtn       40.98 | 39.46 | +1.06 | 44.66, 01/31/13
McDowell     Pleasant Gardens 31.54 | 29.31 | -0.05 | 31.89, 11/29/10
Union (NC)   Mineral Springs  38.15 | 40.99 | +0.17 | 42.70, 01/10/13
York         York Co Airport  27.00 | 27.37 | +0.28 | 29.69, 12/13/12

                                      CHANGE***       RECORD
                              DEPTH*  SINCE   %ile    LOWEST and
                              12/22   11/28#   ****   LEVEL  DATE
COUNTY       LOCATION         (ft)    (ft)   (12/22)  (ft)


Chester      Leeds Road       85.15 | +0.18 | 100th | 94.52, 01/12/14
Davie        Mocksville       18.70 | -0.31 | 25-50 | 23.15, 08/30/02
Haywood     near Cruso        6.66 | +0.12 | <10th |  6.96, 09/12/02
Iredell     Langtree         25.38 | -1.24 | 10-25 | 32.90, 06/21/16
Oconee       Oconee Statn Rd  30.26 | +0.16 | 25-50 | 32.08, 12/31/08
Rowan        Barber            7.98 | -0.12 | 25-50 | 11.15, 09/14/02
Spartanburg  Croft State Park 44.79 | +0.19 | 25-50 | 51.69, 03/17/13
Transylvania Blantyre         34.45 | +0.73 | 25-50 | 42.19, 12/12/08
Transylvania Pisgah Forest    16.78 | -0.72 | 100th | 17.86, 08/25/08

DEFINITIONS:

* DEPTH   = Note that groundwater is measured as depth below the
            surface, unlike streamflow and reservoir data which is the
            reverse or height above the surface.  Therefore, the
            higher the depth value, the less the groundwater supply
            because the groundwater level is further from the surface.

**MEDIAN  = Current depth values that are larger than the monthly
            median can be loosely correlated to drier-than-normal
            conditions while current depth values that are smaller
            than the monthly median can be loosely correlated to
            wetter-than-normal conditions.

***CHANGE = A POSITIVE CHANGE means the groundwater depth has
            increased or is further from the surface.  Therefore,
            a NEGATIVE CHANGE means the groundwater depth has
            decreased or is closer to the surface.  In periods of
            drought, negative changes are ideal.  However, positive
            changes are NORMAL during the late summer and early fall,
            as rainfall is typically isolated to scattered and less
            significant, causing losses to surface and subsurface
            water sources due to increased evapotranspiration,
            evaporation, and increased consumption, while negative
            changes are NORMAL during the late fall and winter, as
            widespread significant precipitation recharges surface
            and subsurface water sources and environmental demands
            are lower.

****PERCENTILE = The percentile (%ile) values can be interpreted as
                 follows:

Less than 10th percentile    - Well-Below Normal
10th-25th percentile         - Below Normal
25th-50th percentile         - Slightly Below Normal/Near Normal
50th-75th percentile         - Slightly Above Normal/Near Normal
75th-90th percentile         - Above Normal
Greater than 90th percentile - Well-Above Normal

#11/28 DEPTH = The groundwater depth observed before significant
               rainfall occurred following a very dry October and
               November period.  Note, however, that for many
               groundwater sites, the depth of the wells are very
               deep and there is a lag between significant rainfall
               and deep infiltration into subsurface water supplies.
               If the rainfall is not significant or occurring over
               a sustained period of time, the water may never
               reach the groundwater wells.  Additionally, if the
               rainfall is significant but occurring quickly and only
               once during a period of several weeks, a shallower
               groundwater well may spike and then return to near
               pre-rainfall levels.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------
..SOIL and CROP MOISTURE*...
----------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
----- CPC SOIL/CROP MOISTURE ESTIMATES (1600-mm or 5.25ft Depth) ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------

              12/22         12/22                 12/17
              SOIL          SOIL      CHANGE      SHORT-TERM
              MOISTURE      MOISTURE  FROM        CROP MOISTURE
              ANOMALY       %ile      NOV 30      INDEX
REGION        (mm)          (%)       (mm)

NC Piedmont   - 40 to -120 |  5-20 | -10 to +10 | -1 to +1, Near-Nrml
NC Foothills  - 60 to -140 |  1-10 | -10 to +20 | -1 to +1, Near-Nrml
NC Nrn Mnts   - 60 to -100 | 10-20 | +10 to +40 | -1 to +1, Near-Nrml
NC Cntl Mnts  - 60 to -100 | 10-20 | +30 to +60 | -1 to +1, Near-Nrml
NC Srn Mnts   - 80 to -120 |  1-10 | +10 to +40 | -1 to +1, Near-Nrml

SC Mnts/      -140 to -160 | <1- 5 | -10 to +20 | -1 to +1, Near-Nrml
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   - 40 to -140 |  5-30 | +10 to +30 | -1 to +1, Near-Nrml

GA NE Mnts/   -140 to -160 |  1- 5 | +20 to +30 | -1 to +1, Near-Nrml
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   -120 to -160 |  1-20 | +20 to +40 | -1 to +1, Near-Nrml

DEFINITIONS:

*EVAPOTRANSPIRATION = The loss of moisture from the soil to the
                      atmosphere plus the loss of moisture from the
                      soil to vegetation.

*INTERPRETATION = Note that above-normal temperatures and
                  below-normal precipitation exacerbate the loss of
                  soil moisture through evapotranspiration, while
                  below-normal temperatures and above-normal
                  precipitation mitigates soil-moisture deficits.
                  However, heading into fall and winter, cooler
                  temperatures and less-active or dormant vegetation
                  reduce demands on the water system and while still
                  important, the effects of above-normal temperatures
                  and below-normal precipitation are lessened.

**CROP MOISTURE = Depicts short-term (< 1 month) dryness or wetness
  INDEX           impacting agriculture.  Negative values indicate
                  dryness, while positive values indicate wetness.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------
..STREAMFLOW*...
----------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------- 28-DAY AVERAGE USGS STREAMFLOW PERCENTILES BY REGION --------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                % OF     %ILE    CLASSIFICATION
REGION          NORMAL
                (11/28#)(11/28)  (11/28)

NC Piedmont      8- 46 |  2-16 | Well-Below Normal
NC Foothills    19- 42 |  1-15 | Well-Below Normal
NC Nrn Mnts     16- 18 |  1st  | Near-Record Lows
NC Cntl Mnts     9- 29 |  1- 6 | Widespread Record Lows
NC Srn Mnts     22- 33 |  1- 8 | Near-Record Lows

SC Mnts/        23- 35 |  1-23 | Well-Below Normal
   Foothills
SC Piedmont      7- 35 |  1-25 | Well-Below Normal

GA NE Mnts/     23- 32 |  1-10 | Near-Record Lows
   Foothills
GA Piedmont     18- 23 |  1-19 | Well-Below Normal

---------------------------------------------------------------------

---------------------------------------------------------------------
----- 28-DAY AVERAGE USGS STREAMFLOW PERCENTILES BY RIVER SYSTEM ----
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                     % OF     %ILE    CLASSIFICATION
RIVER BASIN          NORMAL
                     (11/28#)(11/28)  (11/28)

Broad (GA)            18- 23 |  1-19 | Well-Below Normal
Broad (NC/SC)         19- 44 |  2-20 | Well-Below Normal
Catawba                8- 41 |  1-16 | Well-Below Normal
Enoree/Tyger          19- 35 |  4-12 | Well-Below Normal
French Broad           9- 33 |  1- 6 | Near-Record Lows
Nantahala/Tuckasegee/ 22- 28 |  1- 8 | Widespread Record Lows
Little Tennessee

Pigeon                15- 25 |  1- 2 | Widespread Record Lows
Rocky/Yadkin          15- 48 |  6-25 | Well-Below Normal
Reedy/Saluda          14- 22 |  1- 8 | Near-Record Lows
Tallulah/Chattooga    15- 23 |  1st  | Near-Record Lows
Toxaway/Keowee/        7- 32 |  5-20 | Well-Below Normal
Savannah

---------------------------------------------------------------------

DEFINITIONS...

*RESERVOIR = Please note that streamflows along regulated rivers
 INFLUENCE   (i.e., rivers with reservoirs) may be influenced
             positively and/or negatively by the control of releases
             from those reservoirs.

#11/28     = Streamflows observed before significant rainfall
             occurred following a very dry October and November
             period, capturing the lowest streamflows of the drought
             to-date.

---------------
..RESERVOIRS...
---------------

Duke Energy, the Tennessee Valley Authority, and the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers are enacting drought management plans which
permit the reduction in discharges, within regulated allowances, to
conserve as much pool as streamflow and precipitation inputs will
allow.  However, the lack of precipitation, critically low
streamflows, as well as environmental regulations have necessitated
significant declines in pool elevations across the region.  For more
information, please refer to the SUMMARY OF IMPACTS section of this
statement.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------- POOL ELEVATIONS and DROUGHT STAGES ----------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                                          TARGET  12/23   12/23 12/23
                         ELEV     ELEV*   ELEV    ELEV -  MIN   DGT
RESERVOIR       NWS ID   12/23    11/28   12/23   TARGET  ELEV* STGE
                         (ft)     (ft)    (ft)    (ft)    (ft)

BROAD SYSTEM

Summit          (None)   100.3 |  97.7  |  97.5 | +2.80 |  85.0 | NA
Gaston Shoals   (BLAS1)   99.6 |  98.49 |  99.0 | +0.60 |  98.0 | NA
Ninety-Nine Isl (NNIS1)   99.8 |  98.75 |  99.0 | +0.80 |  98.0 | NA

CATAWBA SYSTEM

James           (BRWN7)  94.80 |  93.65 |  96.0 | -1.20 |  91.0 | 1
Rhodhiss        (RHON7)  96.65 |  96.54 |  97.0 | -0.35 |  93.0 | 1
Hickory         (OXFN7)  97.08 |  96.78 |  96.3 | +0.78 |  94.0 | 1
Lookout Shoals  (LKSN7)  97.45 |  96.78 |  97.0 | +0.45 |  93.0 | 1
Norman          (CWAN7)  93.91 |  93.62 |  96.0 | -2.09 |  91.0 | 1
Mountain Island (MOUN7)  96.70 |  96.80 |  96.0 | +0.70 |  94.3 | 1
Wylie           (FOMS1)  95.74 |  94.46 |  97.0 | -1.26 |  93.0 | 1
Fishing Creek   (FCDS1)  98.22 |  97.54 |  98.0 | +0.22 |  95.0 | 1
Great Falls     (GTFS1)  98.52 |  97.60 |  97.5 | +1.02 |  94.0 | 1
Cedar Creek     (CDCS1)  97.37 |  97.35 |  97.5 | -0.13 |  95.0 | 1

LITTLE TENNESSEE SYSTEM

Tanasee Creek (EFKN7)    85.65 |  86.74 |  85.0 | +0.65 |  81.0 | 2
Bear Creek    (BCDN7)    93.66 |  93.79 |  93.3 | +0.36 |  88.0 | 2
Cedar Cliff   (ICCN7)    97.98 |  98.00 |  97.5 | +0.48 |  96.0 | 0
Glenville     (THPN7)    92.00 |  90.35 |  90.0 | +2.00 |  94.0 | 2
Wolf Creek    (WCDN7)    85.16 |  86.02 |  85.0 | +0.16 |  81.0 | 2
Nantahala     (NANN7)    81.89 |  77.24 |  78.0 | +3.89 |  70.0 | 1
Queens Creek  (QCDN7)    88.80 |  89.57 |  89.9 | -1.10 |  85.8 | ND
Fontana       (FONN7)  1656.01 |1652.90 |1653.0 | +2.99 |1648.0 | NA

SAVANNAH SYSTEM

Jocassee      (JCSS1)    86.97 |  96.92 |    NA |    NA |  77.0 | 2
Keowee        (KEOS1)    97.61 |  97.74 |    NA |    NA |  95.0 | 1
Hartwell      (HRTG1)   649.29 | 649.98 |656.0  | -6.71 | 625.0 | 2
Russell       (RBDS1)   472.64 | 474.63 |475.0  | -2.36 | 470.0 | 2

PROJECTIONS...

LAKE HARTWELL...projected to fall to 10 feet below (650 ft) full pool
                (660 ft) by the end of the year and then level out.
                This is a significant deficit of storage for early
                winter and will require a well-above normal rainfall
                to overcome.

FONTANA LAKE... projected to remain near the median guide curve
                through the winter if normal rainfall occurs.

DEFINITIONS...

*ELEV 11/28 = The elevation observed before significant rainfall
              occurred following a very dry October and November
              period.

MINIMUM     = The minimal elevation is the lowest elevation that the
ELEVATION     pool can be while meeting local community and river
              system needs.  Drought release reduction plans may
              begin above the minimal elevation. For Lake Hartwell
              and Richard B. Russell Lake, the minimal elevation
              marks the bottom of conservation storage or the top of
              the inactive pool.  Drought release reduction plans
              begin at or above the minimal elevation, at 656.0 feet
              at Lake Hartwell and at 470.0 feet for Richard B.
              Russell Lake.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
..DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
=====================================================================

The ongoing La-Nina pattern favors near-normal to slightly
above-normal precipitation across the North Carolina foothills and
mountains with increasing likelihood of below-normal precipitation
further to the east across the Piedmont.  Over the past month, that
pattern has largely been observed and is expected to continue over
the next month.  However, across the Upstate of South Carolina and
northeast Georgia, the drought severity has largely peaked for the
winter season given that more serious agricultural, water supply, and
recreational impacts will not largely be felt until spring.  The only
justification for slight deterioration across the Upstate would be
near-zero, record rainfall deficits over the next 30 to 60 days.
Across northeast Georgia, the exceptional (D4) classification is
still being evaluated and may be adjusted to D3 given a week or two
of near-normal rainfall due to concern that the impacts do not
warrant the worst drought classification relative to past droughts.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------- DROUGHT FORECAST --------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Region         Current Drought          30-Day Drought Forecast
               (as of Dec. 20)          (conditions on Jan. 17)

NC Piedmont  | D1-D2 (Moderate)       | Possible 1 Cat Deterioration
NC Foothills | D1-D2 (Severe)         | Possible 1 Cat Improvement
NC Nrn Mnts  | D1    (Moderate)       | Possible 1 Cat Improvement
NC Cntl Mnts | D2-D3 (Severe)         | Possible 1 Cat Improvement
NC Srn Mnts  | D2-D3 (Severe)         | Possible 1 Cat Improvement

SC Mnts/     | D2-D3 (Extreme)        | Little Change
   Foothills
SC Piedmont  | D2-D3 (Severe)         | Little Change

GA NE Mnts/  | D3-D4 (Extreme)        | Some D4 Removal Possible
   Foothills
GA Piedmont  | D4    (Exceptional)    | Some D4 Removal Possible

---------------------------------------------------------------------

=====================================================================
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
=====================================================================
---------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------ PRODUCT SCHEDULE ---------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------

PRODUCT                                    | NUMBER  | ISSUED BY

Primary Drought Information Statement      | #2017P1 | Jan 20
Intermediate Drought Information Statement | #2017I1 | Feb 17
Primary Drought Information Statement      | #2017P2 | Mar 17

DEFINITIONS:
Intermediate = Update to Synopsis, tabular data, and Outlook only
Primary      = Complete Update to all sections

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==================
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
==================

The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is a multi-agency effort involving
the following organizations:

- National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC)
- U.S. National Weather Service (NWS)
- U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
- U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
- U.S. Forest Service (USFS)
- U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
- State departments of agriculture
- State forest services
- State and regional climatologists
- Private Reservoir Operators

County-specific drought categories are derived from the NDMC`s
USDM.

Agricultural information is derived from the USDA...the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC)...the North Carolina Department of
Agriculture and Consumer Services...and the National Integrated
Drought Information System.

Fire Danger classifications are courtesy of the USFS...the Georgia
Forestry Commission...and the North Carolina Forest Service.

The precipitation analysis is derived from quality-controlled
gridded precipitation estimates produced at the Lower Mississippi
River Forecast Center and the Southeast River Forecast Center.

The precipitation and temperature outlook is derived from guidance
produced at the CPC.

Groundwater levels and records are courtesy of the USGS.

Reservoir information is courtesy of Duke Energy, Georgia Power,
and the USACE.

Additional impact information is gathered from various media
reports as available.

============
RESOURCES...
============

NDMC`s USDM...
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

USDM Classification Definitions...
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/AboutUs/ClassificationScheme.aspx

North Carolina Drought Mitigation Advisory Council...
http://www.ncwater.org/drought/

South Carolina Drought Response Committee...
http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Drought/drought_current_info.php

River Conditions and Forecasts via the NWS...
http://www.weather.gov/ahps/

Streamflow Conditions via the USGS...
http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch

Mid-Term and Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
via the CPC...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

==========================
COUNTY TO REGION LEGEND...
==========================

------------
..GEORGIA...
------------

COUNTY         REGION

Elbert         GA Piedmont
Franklin       GA Piedmont
Habersham      GA NE Mountains/Foothills
Hart           GA Piedmont
Rabun          GA NE Mountains/Foothills
Stephens       GA NE Mountains/Foothills

-------------------
..NORTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY         REGION (SUBREGION)

Alexander      NC Foothills (Northern)
Avery          NC Northern Mountains
Buncombe       NC Central Mountains
Burke          NC Foothills (Northern)
Cabarrus       NC Piedmont (Southern)
Caldwell       NC Foothills (Northern)
Catawba        NC Foothills (Northern)
Cleveland      NC Piedmont (Southern)
Davie          NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Gaston         NC Piedmont (Southern)
Graham         NC Central Mountains
Haywood        NC Central Mountains
Henderson      NC Southern Mountains
Iredell        NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Jackson North  NC Central Mountains
Jackson South  NC Southern Mountains
Lincoln        NC Piedmont (Southern)
Macon          NC Southern Mountains
Madison        NC Central Mountains
McDowell       NC Foothills (Northern)
Mecklenburg    NC Piedmont (Southern)
Mitchell       NC Northern Mountains
Polk           NC Foothills (Southern)
Rowan          NC Piedmont (Northwest)
Rutherford     NC Foothills (Southern)
Swain          NC Central Mountains
Transylvania   NC Southern Mountains
Union          NC Piedmont (Southern)
Yancey         NC Northern Mountains

-------------------
..SOUTH CAROLINA...
-------------------

COUNTY         REGION (SUBREGION)

Abbeville      SC Piedmont (Lower)
Anderson       SC Piedmont (Northern)
Cherokee       SC Piedmont (Northern)
Chester        SC Piedmont (Eastern)
Greenville     SC Mountains/Foothills
Greenwood      SC Piedmont (Lower)
Laurens        SC Piedmont (Lower)
Oconee         SC Mountains/Foothills
Pickens        SC Mountains/Foothills
Spartanburg    SC Mountains/Foothills
Union          SC Piedmont (Eastern)
York           SC Piedmont (Eastern)

========================
QUESTIONS or COMMENTS...
========================

This product has undergone several revisions and enhancements
during the last drought period.  Additional enhancements
are planned for future drought statements. Your feedback and
recommendations are encouraged in order to ensure this product
meets user needs.  Please direct feedback...recommendations...
questions...and comments to:

National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office - Greenville-Spartanburg
1549 GSP Drive
Greer SC 29651
Phone 864-848-9970
joshua.palmer@noaa.gov

$$

JMP


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