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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 210353
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1153 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ANY RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY. SEVERAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON FRIDAY AND DRIES US OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

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AT 03Z...THE STALLED FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE ONTARIO EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS RACING
EASTWARD ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL REACH
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 13Z. I MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY POPS AS WELL AS 1ST PERIOD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY ON. THE BULK
OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE LATE AS WAA PATTERN INCREASES NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHERE ASCENT WILL
BE GREATEST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUDS...FOG...AND
PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. ASCENT UP AND OVER THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH...A RAW EAST WIND WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG WITH THE RAIN...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL AVERAGE ONE HALF TO 1 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...PERHAPS
LOCALLY HIGHER. TOWARD THE COAST...UP TO A HALF INCH IN SPOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE ACTIVE...BUT LOW
AMPLITUDE JET OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS. COMBINES WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND...THIS WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA TO
THE CWA WED INTO THU NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC THURSDAY INTO THU
NIGHT...AND DEEPER 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AND DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
LIFT FAR ENOUGH N ON WED TO BRING WARM AND MUGGY WX TO MOST OF THE
AREA INTO THU. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THRU THU NIGHT...LOOK FOR
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL COME DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS WE WILL BE STUCK
TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED WARM FRONT THROUGH THAT TIME...WITH LOTS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR WED-SAT. HOWEVER SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED AND THU...AND COASTAL STRATUS REMAINS A THREAT
ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...NO FLAGS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF RAIN AND FOG IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCR TO SCA WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DAMP WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREEN UP...FIRE WEATHER DANGER SHOULD BE
LOW THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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&&

$$
ES