Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 281357 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 857 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY... BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9 AM UPDATE...JUST TWEAKED POP AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. OTHER THAN THAT JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFF SHORE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. 6 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CATEGORICAL POPS IN LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH 13 OR 14Z THEN RAPID IMPROVEMENT FROM NW TO SE. PREVIOUSLY... LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS UPSTATE NY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION WILL AFFECT ME AND NH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND TO OUR SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES AT ALL LOCATIONS OF THE CWA HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AND THEREFORE NO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 50 AT MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... FAIR WEATHER WITH OCCASIONALLY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS THE SECONDARY FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH. SOME LAKES MOISTURE MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW FLURRIES AND A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LARGE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE UNITED STATES. WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS STATES... ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA THIS MEANS A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OUT OF THIS AS THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE TROUGH LACKS A MOISTURE CONNECTION UNTIL IT MOVES WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT. COASTAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY RISE TO NEAR FREEZING AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL ATOP A FLAT-TOPPED EAST COAST RIDGE. NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... IMPACTING OUR REGION BY SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW SEEMS LIKELY TO TRACK WEST OF NEW ENGLAND... RESULTING IN A WARM SCENARIO FOR OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN INITIALLY AS SNOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN WITH WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AS SOMETIMES THESE SYSTEMS CAN DEVELOP A SECOND OFFSHORE LOW WHICH ACTS TO HOLD THE COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN MORE OF A COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF A WARM SOLUTION WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SFC WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRINGS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND CAA REGIME DEVELOPS IN IT/S WAKE. LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND COULD STRENGTHEN TO HIGH END ADVISORY OR LOW END GALE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE SEAS PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE THE FETCH IS LONGER. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...KISTNER

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