Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 222035 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 335 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTS FREEZING RAIN.. WITH TEMPS ALOFT REACHING ABOUT +1.5C. MEANWHILE MANY NORTHERN REGIONS HAVE YET TO GO ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FOOTHILLS, DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LEAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NH. FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL PLANE THE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY STILL EXIST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE IN ERNST ON SUNDAY DRIVING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS WARMING TREND AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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STRONG LOW PRES LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A WARM FNT NWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH PCPN MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...FEEL THAT GUIDANCE IS A TAD AGGRESSIVE ON WARM UP. WET BULBING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LEADING EDGE OF WARM FNT WILL FEATURE SOME PCPN...MOSTLY SHRA...BUT DRY SLOT QUICKLY FOLLOWS. WEAK LIFT IN WAA AND LOSS OF SATURATION WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MON. COLD FNT DELAYS UNTIL TUE WHEN IT CAN MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE CAA WIND PICKS UP. BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST HEADING INTO WED...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRICKY THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FORECAST. THERE ARE TWO S/WV TROFS WE/RE CONCERNED WITH. A NRN STREAM WAVE MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A SRN STREAM FEATURE TRACKING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE SRN WAVE WILL PICK UP AMPLE MOISTURE...AND TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH IS ALWAYS A PROBLEM FOR MODELING THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY FOR AT LEAST A PARTIAL PHASE...AND ALLOW THE SFC LOW PRES TO TRACK WELL TO THE W OF THE CMC. ATTM THE GFS REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARM AND AMPLIFIED ECMWF...AND THE COLD...OUT TO SEA CMC. DID RAISE POP AGAIN TO LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY MEANS THAT PTYPE FORECASTS WILL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE COMING DAYS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT TRAVEL WED AND THU COULD BE IMPACTED. THIS IS A FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAY SEE A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. STRONG JET MOVING THROUGH WILL RESULT IN WINDSHEAR WITH WINDS WEST AT 40-45KTS THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON AS WARM FNT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SHALLOW COLD AND WAA ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LLWS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AS STRONG SW FLOW MOVES OVER ALOFT MON. PCPN WILL BE BRIEF...FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DZ UNTIL COLD FNT CLEARS OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...AS POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH SN OR MIXED PCPN AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... GALE WARNING REMAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEARD. OVER THE EASTERN ZONE MATINICUS IS STILL GUSTING 40KTS WHILE FURTHER WEST AROUND ISLES OF SHOALS WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. HAVE LEFT GALE IN PLACE AS THE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN A BIT OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS FOLLOWS BEHIND IT IN CAA REGIME. LOW CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL STORM FOR LATE WED INTO THU...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007-008. NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003- 005-007. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CURTIS SHORT TERM...CURTIS LONG TERM...LEGRO AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO

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